Reported By Mary Udezue | Edited by: Gabriel Osa
In a development that has reignited debate over the interpretation of Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election outcomes, prominent politician and African Democratic Congress (ADC) chieftain Leke Abejide has asserted that the performance of presidential candidate Peter Obi was significantly influenced by religious and tribal considerations rather than purely political or policy‑driven support.
Abejide, a two‑term member of the House of Representatives representing Yagba Federal Constituency in Kogi State, made the remarks in an interview on a national television programme, where he offered a critical analysis of the political landscape that shaped voting patterns in the last general election. According to his assessment, the substantial backing for the Labour Party’s candidate was not rooted in broad ideological appeal but was instead mainly driven by apprehensions among specific demographic groups — particularly Northern Christians — about how a Bola Tinubu presidency might affect their religious freedoms. This, he suggested, was a decisive factor that steered many voters toward Obi at the time. Abejide’s observations reflect ongoing discourse about the role of identity in Nigerian elections and how it can influence voter behaviour.
Highlighting what he described as misconceptions in opposition strategies, Abejide argued that many Northern Christians feared restrictive conditions for their faith if the incumbent president, Bola Tinubu, then the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, assumed office. He said those fears, while impactful in 2023, have since proven to be misplaced because of how Tinubu’s government has conducted itself, promoting what Abejide described as a balanced approach to religious inclusion. “People, especially the Northern Christians, believed they would be in trouble if Asiwaju came in as president. They believed they would not have room to exercise their faith, but it’s not like that today,” he said, emphasising his view that claims of religious bigotry against the president were unfounded.
Abejide’s comments arrive at a time when Nigeria’s major political parties are already positioning themselves for the 2027 general election, and discussions around potential coalitions and opposition strategies have intensified. He cautioned that opposition figures still banking on a repeat of the 2023 election dynamics, especially those anticipating that combining votes from different opposition blocs would guarantee an electoral victory over the APC next cycle, are “building castles in the air.” Abejide described these calculations as overly simplistic and disconnected from the evolving political climate under the current administration.
His critique took aim not only at broader opposition tactics but also at internal practices within the ADC itself. With Peter Obi’s recent defection to the party drawing significant attention, Abejide questioned the former Labour Party presidential candidate’s registration process, noting that Obi registered in Enugu State instead of his home ward in Anambra State — a move he characterised as unconventional and not aligned with established political norms. “He’s supposed to go to his ward and register from his ward. Then it can be recognised. If you go to the zonal office and you register as a politician, this kind of politics is a new system to me,” he remarked, underscoring his belief that proper procedural adherence is essential for credibility.
Beyond procedural critiques, Abejide also drew attention to what he described as persistent leadership disputes within the ADC. He warned that the party’s internal challenges — particularly ongoing leadership contests that have yet to be resolved in court — could undermine its capacity to mount an effective challenge against the ruling party. “The leadership of ADC today is in crisis, and until the court decides, nobody can say this is going to defeat the APC,” he stated, stressing that unresolved internal issues could weaken the party’s strategic position ahead of 2027.
Despite his critical stance, Abejide signalled that the ADC remains open to political engagement, inviting politicians who wish to join the party to do so through proper channels. He made clear, however, that such moves must adhere to procedural norms to ensure the party’s growth is grounded in legitimacy and organisational stability.
Political observers say Abejide’s remarks reignite long‑standing debates about the interplay between identity politics and electoral outcomes in Nigeria. While some analysts agree that religious and ethnic sentiments have historically shaped voting patterns in various regions of the country, others contend that such dynamics are only one part of a complex matrix that includes issues like governance performance, youth engagement, economic policies, and grassroots mobilization.
Indeed, scholarly analysis of the 2023 election suggests that multiple factors — including region, religion, socioeconomic status, and party loyalty — influenced voter decisions across the nation’s diverse political landscape. Researchers have highlighted that presidential candidates tend to perform better in areas where they enjoy cultural, religious, or ethnic affinity, but they also stress the need to consider broader socioeconomic determinants for a fuller understanding of electoral behaviour.
As political parties gear up for Nigeria’s next general election, Abejide’s statements underscore the delicate balancing act of coalition‑building in a highly pluralistic society. His assertion that opposition forces cannot simply replicate past political equations points to growing recognition among some political actors that evolving national sentiments and demographic shifts demand new strategies.
Critics of Abejide’s perspective, however, may argue that reducing voter behaviour to religious or ethnic factors risks overlooking substantive policy debates that resonate with a wider electorate, including issues such as economic hardship, unemployment, insecurity, and governance performance. The tension between identity‑based explanations and policy‑driven frameworks remains a central theme in Nigerian political analysis, with each election cycle reigniting discussions about the relative weight of these influences.
For now, Abejide’s comments add a notable voice to the continuing conversation about how Nigeria’s political future might unfold, especially as stakeholders across the spectrum seek to define the strategies that will shape the 2027 electoral contest.
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