Reported by: Oahimire Omone Precious | Edited by: Gabriel Osa
Lagos, Nigeria — Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market has experienced a sudden and significant price reversal after private depot owners across the country lifted the ex‑depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, to ₦800 per litre. The sharp increase comes amid confirmation that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has temporarily shut down its primary petrol‑producing unit for planned maintenance and upgrades — a development that market analysts say has disrupted supply dynamics and rekindled inflationary pressures at the pumps.
The price adjustment follows a brief softening seen between December 23 and 24, 2025, during which ex‑depot prices had eased slightly. Prior to this most recent hike, wholesale petrol prices varied by location: Lagos depots such as Nipco, Rainoil and Aiteo were quoted around ₦725 per litre, while depots in Port Harcourt, Warri and Calabar traded between ₦754 and ₦773 per litre. However, by late December and into early January 2026, most major depots nationwide — including those in Port Harcourt, Calabar, Warri and, now, Lagos — aligned at the new ex‑depot benchmark of ₦800 per litre.
Industry insiders attribute the abrupt escalation to the temporary shutdown of the Dangote Refinery’s Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC) unit, which is the main gasoline‑producing component of Africa’s largest refinery. The refinery is also preparing to take its Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) offline in early January for a brief period as part of a strategic turnaround maintenance programme. The refinery’s management has emphasised that the maintenance is not the result of an emergency failure but rather a planned investment aimed at increasing long‑term output and operational efficiency.
Devakumar Edwin, Vice President of Dangote Industries, explained that production levels had exceeded expectations across many units, stressing the need to “remove constraints” to elevate overall output. In comments to global energy news service Platts (S&P Global), Edwin confirmed that the strategic maintenance would ultimately raise the refinery’s CDU capacity from the current 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 700,000 bpd, positioning the facility for expanded future production and reduced dependency on imported fuel.
Market analysts say that despite the temporary supply disruption, the refinery’s long‑term enhancement could eventually exert downward pressure on prices and stabilise Nigeria’s fuel supply — provided the upgrades proceed on schedule and the additional capacity is fully realised. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, has long sought to achieve self‑sufficiency in petrol production, having historically relied on foreign imports to meet domestic demand. The Dangote Refinery, which commenced operations in stages since 2023, was designed to eliminate import dependence and transform Nigeria into a net fuel exporter.
However, in the short term, the price surge has renewed public concern over the affordability of petrol and its broader impact on the cost of living. Transport operators, commuters and small businesses reliant on fuel have already begun feeling the strain of higher costs, with reports emerging of service‑fare increases in major urban centres and rising transportation charges on inter‑state routes.
In markets and on social media, consumers reacted to the price adjustment with frustration, questioning the timing of the shutdown so soon after recent price relief. Motorists at filling stations in Lagos and Abuja expressed apprehension that the domestic price increases could translate rapidly into higher retail pump prices, which have been closely watched since Nigeria deregulated its downstream sector in late 2023.
Economists and energy experts note that while disruptions from major refinery maintenance are not unusual, effective communication from industry stakeholders and transitional supply measures can help cushion markets from sharp spikes. They also point to structural challenges in Nigeria’s energy value chain — including logistics bottlenecks, high distribution costs and foreign exchange volatility — as factors that can amplify price sensitivity when supply shifts occur.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), which oversees pricing guidelines and operational oversight for the sector, has not yet issued an official statement regarding the latest ex‑depot price realignment or its projected impact on pump prices. Observers anticipate that regulatory clarification may be forthcoming, particularly as state and federal authorities monitor market responses and seek to mitigate undue hardship on consumers.
For now, the market adjustment to ₦800 per litre at the ex‑depot level stands as the predominant benchmark for distributors and marketers, setting the stage for potentially higher retail prices at service stations nationwide. As Nigerians grapple with the financial implications, attention is turning to the Dangote Refinery’s upgrade timetable and the prospects for enhanced domestic production that could, over time, ease the nation’s fuel cost burden.
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