Reported by: Oahimire Omone Precious | Edited by: Gabriel Osa
Nigeria missed its oil production target set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the fifth straight month in December 2025, underscoring persistent challenges in the nation’s upstream energy sector and raising fresh concerns about the outlook for crude revenue and broader economic stability.
According to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria’s average crude oil output in December was 1.42 million barrels per day (bpd) — below its assigned quota of 1.5 million bpd. This performance marks the fifth consecutive month that production has fallen short of the benchmark agreed with the global oil cartel. The figure also represents a slight decline from November’s output of 1.43 million bpd.
Despite consistently underperforming relative to quota, Nigeria remains Africa’s largest crude producer, ahead of rivals such as Libya. OPEC’s reported figures are drawn from direct communication with member authorities, reflecting official data submitted by Nigeria to the cartel.
The shortfall highlights continuing structural and operational challenges facing Nigeria’s oil industry. Experts point to a combination of aging infrastructure, underinvestment in exploration and production, illegal crude bunkering (oil theft) and sporadic disruption of output as factors that have constrained sustained production growth. Historical data also show that Nigeria has repeatedly struggled to meet the 1.5 million bpd quota in past years, even during periods when secondary data suggested higher overall crude and condensate output.
OPEC data also differentiate between crude oil and condensate — with the organisation generally basing quota compliance on crude figures alone. In contrast, Nigeria’s domestic regulatory reporting sometimes includes condensates, which can show higher aggregate output levels in internal statistics.
Oil remains a cornerstone of the Nigerian economy, accounting for a significant share of government revenue, foreign exchange earnings and export receipts. Failure to hit OPEC targets has direct implications for federal budget performance, particularly in the context of planned fiscal receipts tied to oil benchmarks. The continued output gap could weaken crude export revenues, reduce foreign currency inflows, and constrain fiscal space for public investment, social spending and debt servicing.
Market analysts also note that persistent underproduction may influence OPEC’s perspective on quota allocations, given broader efforts by the cartel and its allies to balance supply and demand globally. Nigeria’s recurring shortfalls, if prolonged, risk diminishing its influence within the grouping and may invite discussions about quota adjustments or production strategies aligned with realistic capacity.
Nigerian authorities have previously emphasised efforts to boost output and enhance sector resilience, including initiatives to revive dormant oil fields, attract private investment and strengthen security around critical production infrastructure. State-aligned bodies such as the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) have periodically cited progress in rig count activity and strategic collaborations with international partners aimed at raising production capacity. However, translating these measures into consistent monthly production gains has been elusive.
The federal government has set ambitious medium-term goals to increase crude output beyond OPEC quotas as part of broader revenue diversification and energy policy reforms. These objectives, while aspirational, face headwinds from persistent structural bottlenecks in the upstream value chain.
As Nigeria heads into 2026, OPEC has maintained the country’s oil production quota at 1.5 million bpd, reaffirming the target through year-end 2026 as part of broader efforts to stabilise global oil markets. Meeting this quota remains a policy priority but will require sustained improvement in upstream performance and mitigation of losses from theft and vandalism.
Energy analysts say reversing the trend of underproduction will be critical not only to meet OPEC obligations but also to secure more stable revenue streams, strengthen investor confidence and bolster macroeconomic resilience amid external headwinds. The coming months will be closely watched by stakeholders in both the domestic and international oil markets.
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