Reported by: Oahimire Omone Precious | Edited by: Gabriel Osa
ABUJA, Nigeria — Nigeria’s domestic petrol supply experienced a significant boost in December 2025 following regulatory leadership changes that coincided with improved operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals facility.
New data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from the Dangote Refinery jumped sharply, rising by roughly 64 per cent to an average of 32.01 million litres per day in December, up from about 19.5 million litres per day in November. This increase marked one of the largest monthly improvements in locally supplied petrol since the refinery began phased operations.
The surge in domestic petrol output followed the exit of Farouk Ahmed as Chief Executive Officer of the NMDPRA, a change that industry stakeholders have linked with smoother coordination between regulators and operators across Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector. Dangote Group president Aliko Dangote confirmed the improved supply, saying the refinery has maintained an even higher average of about 50 million litres daily since mid-December 2025 — a level more closely aligned with national consumption needs.
Ahmed and Dangote had previously been at odds over regulatory decisions, particularly around the issuance of import licences. Dangote accused the former NMDPRA boss of approving excessive import permits at a time when significant domestic capacity had become available, a dispute that intensified before Ahmed’s eventual departure in December.
The latest NMDPRA fact sheet also reported that Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption rose to about 63.7 million litres in December, up from approximately 52.9 million litres in November, reflecting heightened demand associated with end-of-year mobility and increased economic activity. This meant that despite the strong growth in local supply, total consumption still exceeded domestic output, underlining the ongoing challenge of fully meeting national petrol needs through local refining alone.
While Dangote Refinery’s contribution was pivotal, petrol imports continued to play a role, with imported volumes reported at 42.2 million litres per day in December. However, import figures declined by nearly 19 per cent compared with November, indicating a gradual shift toward greater reliance on local production.
The improved petrol supply also contributed to better fuel stock levels nationwide. National petrol stock sufficiency — a measure of how many days of supply are available — climbed to 29.20 days in December, up from 16.65 days in November. Analysts say this enhanced buffer may help mitigate disruptions and support more stable fuel distribution across regions.
Despite the notable increases, industry observers stress that Dangote Refinery’s petrol output still falls short of the full 50 million litres per day required to meet national consumption on its own. NMDPRA data indicate the refinery’s performance in December did not quite reach the planned 50 million litres daily target but nevertheless represented a significant operational milestone as the facility continues to scale up capacity utilisation.
Beyond petrol, the authority’s fact sheet showed mixed performance across other petroleum products. While domestic supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), commonly used for cooking, edged up slightly, average diesel supply from local refineries declined as some facilities experienced operational constraints.
Industry analysts have praised the refinery’s ramp-up in local petrol supply as a major stride toward reducing Nigeria’s long-standing reliance on imported refined fuel. For decades, Nigeria — despite being one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers — depended heavily on foreign petrol imports, exposing the economy to global price volatility, foreign exchange pressures, and supply chain disruptions.
The refinery’s enhanced petrol output has also invigorated discussion about broader downstream sector reforms. Observers note that synchronized regulatory frameworks and operational efficiencies are essential to ensure that domestic refining capacity is fully harnessed in support of national economic objectives, including energy security, price stability, and reduced foreign exchange outflows.
Dangote and other industry leaders have emphasised the importance of continued policy support from the federal government to sustain and deepen these gains. In public remarks, Dangote urged backing for initiatives that he says will help Nigeria realise an ambitious growth agenda, including achieving a multi-trillion-dollar economy and expanding industrial capacity. While these comments were made in the context of broader business strategy discussions, they highlight the intricate links between petroleum sector performance and wider economic aspirations.
Looking forward, analysts say that maintaining and expanding domestic petrol supply will depend not only on the Dangote refinery’s continued operational progress but also on improved infrastructure for product evacuation, storage, and distribution. Enhancing local refining capacity through further investment and regulatory coherence could bolster fuel security and reduce the nation’s vulnerability to import-related shocks in the longer term.
As Nigeria navigates the post-fuel subsidy era and seeks to stabilise its energy markets, the notable increase in petrol supply from Dangote Refinery represents both a logistical achievement and a symbol of shifting dynamics in the country’s petroleum landscape — one that industry stakeholders hope will lead to lower import dependence and more resilient domestic fuel availability.
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