Reported by: Ijeoma G | Edited by: Henry Owen
Nigeria’s already fragile healthcare system is confronting a critical manpower emergency as the number of licensed doctors available to serve the nation has fallen sharply, according to a recent authoritative report by PUNCH HealthWise. The country, home to more than 220 million people, now has only about 40,000 licensed doctors, a figure that is dramatically short of the approximately 300,000 physicians estimated to be required to meet even basic healthcare needs across the federation. This shortfall underscores an escalating crisis that threatens access to care, worsens health outcomes, and strains an already overburdened system.
The alarming reduction in medical personnel comes amid a sustained exodus of health professionals, popularly referred to in Nigeria as the “japa syndrome,” where qualified doctors leave the country for better opportunities abroad. In 2024, the Federal Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Professor Muhammad Pate, disclosed that Nigeria had around 55,000 licensed doctors. However, within a year, this number has dropped to about 40,000, as doctors exit active service or move overseas in search of improved working conditions and remuneration.
The trend has been particularly pronounced in urban centres like Lagos State, where the shortage is stark. Lagos alone, with a population approaching 30 million, has just roughly 7,000 doctors to attend to its residents but requires more than 40,000 to provide adequate services. The state’s Commissioner for Health, Professor Akin Abayomi, highlighted this gap during a leadership dialogue on strengthening primary healthcare, stressing that manpower constraints are among the most pressing challenges facing the sector.
Experts and health officials say that the workforce deficit reflects deeper structural problems within Nigeria’s health system. The brain drain of medical professionals has continued unabated for years, with thousands of doctors migrating to countries with robust health infrastructure, better pay, and safer working conditions. Foreign recruitment efforts have intensified, with some governments actively seeking Nigerian-trained specialists such as obstetricians, gynaecologists, and paediatricians, further depleting the local pool of skilled clinicians.
The consequences of the shrinking doctor population are wide-ranging and immediate. Public hospitals and clinics across Nigeria are struggling to provide timely care, with long waiting times and overworked staff becoming common realities. Some facilities have resorted to hiring locum doctors on temporary contracts to fill staffing gaps, a stop-gap measure that offers little long-term stability or continuity of care.
Nigeria’s doctor-to-population ratio now sits far below international benchmarks. According to health sector analysts, the current ratio is estimated at roughly one doctor per 8,000 patients, a figure that pales in comparison to the World Health Organization’s recommended ratio of one doctor to every 600 people. In certain regions, especially rural or conflict-affected areas, the shortfall is even more acute, leaving millions of Nigerians without reliable access to essential medical care.
The shortage has particularly dire implications for maternal and child health, emergency care, and the management of chronic illnesses. Health authorities warn that as specialists continue to depart, conditions such as complications in pregnancy, infectious diseases, and non-communicable diseases could worsen, leading to higher morbidity and mortality rates. This is especially concerning in a country where crude health indicators already lag behind regional peers.
Beyond sheer numbers, the distribution of healthcare workers compounds the crisis. Most doctors and specialised medical professionals are concentrated in major cities and southern states, while rural communities—where healthcare infrastructure is weakest—are left severely underserved. This imbalance exacerbates disparities in health outcomes and perpetuates inequities in access to care.
The government and health sector stakeholders have proposed several strategies to confront the manpower crisis, but progress has been slow and uneven. Plans to expand medical education and increase postgraduate training slots could help over the long term, but training a physician remains a lengthy and resource-intensive process. Estimates suggest that at the current pace, it would take decades to produce sufficient numbers of doctors to close the gap, even if outflows were curbed.
In a bid to strengthen the health workforce pipeline, Lagos State has invested in the newly established University of Medicine and Health, with projections to produce a significant number of healthcare workers annually, including doctors, laboratory scientists, and other essential cadres. Officials hope that such long-term investments will gradually alleviate workforce pressures.
However, training more medical professionals is only one element of the solution. Retention remains a critical issue. Healthcare workers in Nigeria cite poor remuneration, inadequate infrastructure, limited career progression opportunities, and concerns about personal safety as key factors driving their decision to leave. Without meaningful reforms to improve working conditions and professional support, experts caution that efforts to expand the healthcare workforce will not yield the desired results.
Professional associations have been vocal in urging the government to prioritise healthcare workforce welfare. The Nigerian Medical Association (NMA) and other groups argue that without competitive pay, comprehensive insurance schemes, and improved clinical environments, the country will continue to bleed talent to foreign health systems. They also emphasise the need for stronger policies to encourage doctors to serve in underserved regions and rural communities.
The ripple effects of the manpower shortfall extend beyond hospitals. Community clinics, primary healthcare centres, and public health programmes are all strained, affecting vaccination campaigns, disease surveillance, and preventive services. Health economists warn that persistent shortages could undermine national development goals and place additional pressure on families forced to seek costly private care or travel long distances for treatment.
Public sentiment reflects growing frustration and concern. Many Nigerians describe long waits for medical appointments, reduced hospital services, and increased out-of-pocket expenses as daily challenges. Some have turned to alternative solutions such as telemedicine, but these are often not viable for complex or emergency care, particularly for low-income populations.
As policymakers, health leaders, and international partners grapple with the crisis, it is clear that addressing Nigeria’s doctor shortage will require sustained political will, strategic investment, and broad structural reform. The health of a nation depends not only on the numbers of its clinicians but on the strength and resilience of the entire healthcare ecosystem. For Nigeria, bridging the gap between current realities and the health needs of its people remains an urgent and formidable challenge.
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