Reported by: Ijeoma G | Edited by: Gabriel Osa
ABUJA, Nigeria — International financial authorities have publicly endorsed Nigeria’s latest inflation figures and the statistical reforms underpinning them, hailing the outcome as a positive development for economic transparency and macroeconomic stability.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed its support on Thursday for the December 2025 inflation data released by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), noting that the methodological adjustments adopted by the bureau bring the country’s inflation measurement more closely into line with global best practices. The IMF’s statement, issued on behalf of its Resident Representative for Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, emphasised that the revised approach enhances the credibility and comparability of the data, which is critical for effective policy-making and international confidence in Nigeria’s economic statistics.
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, indicating a marked moderation in inflationary pressures compared with earlier in the year. This represented a significant drop from both the revised November figure of 17.33 per cent and the substantially higher 34.80 per cent recorded in December 2024. The bureau attributed much of this moderation to broader economic trends, including stabilising food prices, as well as the effects of its recently overhauled Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology.
The revised CPI framework replaces the previous single-month reference point with a 12-month index reference period, utilising the average CPI for all months of 2024 as the new benchmark after rebasing the index. This adjustment, endorsed by the IMF, was designed to prevent artificial volatility and base-effect distortions that could otherwise exaggerate year-on-year inflation readings. The IMF noted that under the old single-month reference method, the December 2025 inflation rate could have appeared significantly higher due to methodological artefacts rather than actual price movements.
Laraba Bonet, Office Manager for the IMF Resident Representation in Nigeria, said the organisation “welcomes the December Consumer Price Index inflation figures released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, which show an easing of inflation that, if sustained, will help reduce cost-of-living pressures and support macroeconomic stability.” The IMF also highlighted that the methodological change aligns with standards set out in the IMF’s 2020 Consumer Price Index Manual and the ECOWAS Harmonised CPI Manual, frameworks that guide robust inflation measurement across member states.
Analysts and policymakers have underscored that accurate and internationally comparable inflation data are essential for Nigeria’s economic planning and its engagement with global investors. Reliable CPI data influences monetary policy decisions, public expectations, and fiscal planning, particularly in an economy emerging from a period of high volatility. The IMF’s endorsement of the NBS methodology is likely to bolster confidence in Nigeria’s statistics, which have historically been the subject of debate among economists and foreign partners.
However, while the headline figure shows a meaningful descent in inflation, the NBS cautioned that average price levels remain elevated on a broader, twelve-month basis. The bureau reported that the 12-month average inflation rate stood at around 23 per cent, reflecting that, despite the recent moderation, many Nigerians continue to face significant cost-of-living challenges. Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributors to the headline rate, underscoring ongoing pressures in essential consumption categories.
The institutional shift in inflation measurement follows broader reforms undertaken by the NBS, including rebasing the CPI to a 2024 base year, the first such update in years. Rebasing CPI and other economic indicators is intended to reflect changes in consumption patterns, price structures, and economic realities that old base years no longer capture adequately. Such updates are common practice globally but require careful communication and adjustment to maintain stakeholders’ confidence in statistical outputs.
Economic commentators have generally welcomed the IMF’s positive assessment, viewing it as a step toward greater transparency and alignment with international norms. Some analysts argue that the methodological clarity brought by the changes may also help reduce speculation and misinterpretation of inflation trends both domestically and abroad. More accurate inflation data are seen as essential to Nigeria’s efforts to attract foreign investment, improve monetary policy effectiveness, and anchor inflation expectations among consumers and business leaders.
Still, challenges remain. Many Nigerian households continue to grapple with high prices for staple goods and services, and a slower pace of income growth relative to living costs. While headline inflation has moderated, the lived experience of many citizens—particularly in low-income and rural communities—often reflects persistent pressures on household budgets. Economists note that the headline inflation rate, though helpful for macroeconomic analysis, may not immediately translate into lower prices at the market level, especially for core necessities.
The Nigerian government has in recent months pursued a range of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stabilising the economy. These include tightening monetary policy, managing the foreign exchange market to reduce volatility, and implementing reforms intended to diversify revenue and strengthen economic resilience. The IMF’s backing of the inflation data and methodology is expected to complement these policy efforts by providing a firmer statistical basis for monitoring progress.
Finance officials have described the latest inflation outcomes as part of a broader disinflationary trend following a period of economic turbulence triggered by global price shocks, currency pressures, and structural adjustments. They argue that sustained moderation in inflation—backed by methodological transparency—could ease some cost-of-living pressures and improve conditions for investment and growth.
As Nigeria enters 2026, the global financial community will be watching closely to see whether the downward trajectory in inflation persists and how effectively fiscal and monetary authorities utilise the improved data framework for policy calibration. The IMF’s endorsement marks a notable moment in Nigeria’s economic reporting, potentially strengthening market confidence and aligning the country with international inflation measurement standards. Observers say continued vigilance will be required to ensure that statistical changes translate into real economic benefits for the average Nigerian household.
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