Reported by: Ijeoma G | Edited by: Gabriel Osa
In a significant development for Nigeria’s energy sector, data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reveal that domestic petrol supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery surged by 64.1 per cent in December 2025, marking a notable shift in the nation’s fuel supply dynamics. The ramp-up in local output comes as imports of petrol declined, underscoring the growing influence of indigenous refining capacity in meeting Nigeria’s energy needs.
According to the authority’s monthly fact sheet, the refinery supplied an average of 32 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) per day in December, up from 19.5 million litres per day in November. This increase made the Dangote facility the dominant source of domestically refined petrol, as government-owned refineries remained non-operational throughout the month.
The surge in local supply coincided with a 19 percent decline in petrol imports, which fell to 42.2 million litres per day in December from 52.1 million litres in November. This drop reflects a reduced reliance on foreign fuel shipments as the Dangote Refinery’s output grows, albeit still short of fully meeting national demand.
Daily petrol consumption in Nigeria also rose significantly in December, to 63.7 million litres, up from 52.9 million litres in November, demonstrating robust domestic demand for fuel. The figures are based on volumes delivered into the market, highlighting heightened activity in distribution networks as the economy navigates end-of-year pressures and seasonal demand fluctuations.
Industry observers attribute the improved performance at the Dangote Refinery to enhanced operational coordination and capacity utilisation. The facility, a multibillion-dollar complex designed to process up to 650,000 barrels of crude per day, achieved an average capacity utilisation rate of 62.94 per cent in December. While this reflects a significant operational stride, it remains below the plant’s projected full capacity, indicating room for further scale-up.
The refinery’s contribution marks a milestone for Nigeria, a country that long depended on imported refined petroleum products despite being one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers. The decline in import volumes during December suggests that increased domestic supply is beginning to ease the country’s vulnerability to foreign market fluctuations and foreign exchange pressures, two perennial challenges that have historically undermined energy security and economic resilience.
Sector analysts believe that the refinery’s progress could strengthen Nigeria’s energy self-sufficiency over time, provided that capacity utilisation continues to improve and logistical bottlenecks are addressed. Enhanced domestic production not only has implications for reducing import bills but also for stabilising fuel prices, which have been volatile in recent years due to changes in global oil markets and exchange rate dynamics.
Despite the gains, local supply still falls short of the nation’s daily consumption requirements. Nigeria’s petrol demand is estimated at more than 50 million litres per day, meaning that even with strong performance from the Dangote Refinery, imports remain necessary to bridge the gap between production and consumption.
Meanwhile, the broader midstream and downstream sector exhibited mixed trends. While petrol supply benefited from the refinery’s performance, average daily supply of diesel (Automated Gas Oil, AGO) declined by over 12 per cent in December, dropping to 17.9 million litres per day. Domestic refineries—including Dangote, Port Harcourt Refinery Company, Aradel, Edo and Waltersmith—collectively supplied some 7 million litres of diesel per day, but overall volumes were unable to match the drop in supply.
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply experienced a modest uptick, rising to about 5,201 metric tons per day in December from around 5,000 metric tons per day in November. Prices for LPG remained within a range of ₦1,120 to ₦1,600 per kilogramme, reflecting relative stability in the cooking gas market even as other fuel segments adjust to changing supply patterns.
The expansion of the Dangote Refinery’s role in the domestic market has elicited a range of reactions from stakeholders. Some petroleum marketers have welcomed the increased availability of locally refined products, saying it offers greater predictability and reduced exposure to import-related disruptions. At the same time, industry debate continues around pricing, distribution mechanisms, and the need for policy frameworks that support sustained utilisation of domestic refining capacity.
Critics of imports argue that continued reliance on foreign fuel undermines Nigeria’s economic sovereignty and drains valuable foreign exchange reserves. They contend that a strategic focus on domestic refining and infrastructure investments will yield long-term benefits, including job creation, improved energy security and a more stable macroeconomic environment. However, others caution that the transition away from imports must be carefully managed to avoid supply shocks or market distortions, particularly in the context of fluctuating global oil prices.
Government and industry officials have underscored the importance of supporting domestic refining capacity while also maintaining adequate import channels to ensure uninterrupted fuel availability. The NMDPRA’s latest data underscore the balancing act facing policymakers as they seek to enhance energy security without compromising market stability or consumer access to essential fuels.
Looking ahead, sustaining gains in domestic petrol supply will depend on ongoing investments in refining technology, improved coordination among regulators, refinery operators, and distribution partners, and supportive policies that encourage efficient market practices. Strengthening domestic refining infrastructure could also position Nigeria to play a larger role in regional fuel markets, potentially exporting excess capacity once national needs are fully met.
As the Nigerian energy landscape evolves, the surge in petrol supply from the Dangote Refinery represents both a milestone and a catalyst for further reform, with implications for economic growth, energy policy, and the future of fuel markets in West Africa.
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