Reported by: Ijeoma G | Edited by: Carmen Diego
Farmers across Nigeria are warning that they may drastically reduce cultivation or boycott the upcoming planting season entirely, citing spiraling production costs that they say have rendered farming increasingly unprofitable and unsustainable. The development raises fresh concerns about food security in Africa’s most populous nation at a time when households are already grappling with high food prices and broader economic pressures.
The warning was issued by the leadership of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), which represents producers across multiple value chains nationwide. According to the association, the sharp rise in the cost of fertilisers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, labour, and transportation has outpaced farmers’ earnings, forcing many into financial losses. Farmers argue that without urgent government intervention, the next planting cycle could witness a significant drop in acreage under cultivation.
In interviews reported by Punch Newspaper, AFAN President Mohammed Magaji explained that the cost of fertiliser has risen dramatically compared to previous seasons. A 50-kilogram bag of NPK fertiliser now reportedly sells for around ₦80,000 in some markets, a price many smallholder farmers consider prohibitive. Urea and other essential inputs have followed similar trajectories. Magaji stated that in some cases, farmers spend between ₦45,000 and ₦50,000 to cultivate crops only to sell the harvest at approximately ₦30,000, effectively operating at a loss.
The consequences are already becoming visible in planting decisions. Magaji noted that he previously cultivated between 50 and 70 hectares of farmland but is considering reducing his cultivated area to between 10 and 20 hectares due to escalating input costs. Other farmers, particularly smallholders who account for the majority of Nigeria’s agricultural output, are reportedly contemplating even more drastic measures, including suspending operations until economic conditions improve.
This threat of a planting boycott underscores deeper structural vulnerabilities within Nigeria’s agricultural sector. While official data in recent months have suggested a marginal easing of headline and food inflation, producers argue that such figures do not reflect the realities of farm-level economics. Even where market prices for food commodities appear high, farmers say that high input costs, logistics expenses, and limited access to affordable financing erode their margins.
Transportation remains a major burden. The removal of fuel subsidies in 2023 and subsequent increases in fuel prices have significantly raised haulage costs, affecting the movement of fertilisers to rural communities and produce to urban markets. Inadequate rural road infrastructure compounds the problem, increasing spoilage and post-harvest losses. Analysts estimate that Nigeria loses trillions of naira annually due to insufficient storage facilities, particularly cold-chain systems for perishable goods. These losses further weaken farmers’ negotiating power and profitability.
Security challenges also intersect with the current crisis. Many farming communities in northern and central Nigeria continue to face threats from banditry, kidnapping, and farmer-herder conflicts. Insecurity restricts access to farmlands and forces some farmers to abandon fields altogether. Where cultivation continues, producers often incur additional costs for informal security arrangements or risk exposure to violence.
Agricultural stakeholders warn that a widespread reduction in planting could have ripple effects throughout the food supply chain. Lower domestic production may intensify reliance on imports, exert additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and expose Nigeria to global commodity price volatility. Consumers, already struggling with high food costs, could face further increases if supply contracts during the next harvest season.
The federal government has introduced various agricultural support initiatives in recent years, including fertiliser distribution programs and credit schemes aimed at smallholders. However, farmers’ associations argue that implementation gaps, delayed disbursements, and insufficient coverage have limited the effectiveness of these interventions. Some producers say they have yet to receive promised subsidised inputs, leaving them to rely on market prices that remain out of reach.
Economists note that agriculture remains a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy, employing a substantial proportion of the population and contributing significantly to gross domestic product. Sustained underinvestment, however, has hindered productivity growth. Mechanisation levels remain low compared to global averages, irrigation coverage is limited, and access to modern inputs is uneven across regions. Without systemic reforms, analysts warn that cyclical crises tied to input costs and security disruptions may persist.
For rural households, the stakes are immediate. Farming income supports education, healthcare, and basic living expenses for millions. A contraction in planting could deepen poverty levels in already vulnerable communities. At the same time, policymakers face the delicate task of balancing fiscal constraints with the need to stabilise food production and rural livelihoods.
As the planting season approaches, farmers say time is of the essence. Many have not yet committed to purchasing inputs, awaiting clearer signals on possible government support or market stabilization measures. The coming weeks may determine whether the boycott threat materialises or whether dialogue between stakeholders yields temporary relief.
The situation highlights the fragile equilibrium between agricultural production costs and national food security. Without timely interventions to address input affordability, infrastructure deficits, and security risks, Nigeria’s food system could face renewed strain in the months ahead.
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