Agric Minister Says Food Prices Have Dropped by 50% Nationwide Under Tinubu’s Reforms

Reported by Ariajegbe Sylvia Esezobor 

The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Senator Abubakar Kyari, has said the prices of essential food commodities have dropped by 50 per cent nationwide, crediting the agricultural reforms of the Tinubu administration with reversing the sharp increases that characterised previous years and bringing relief to Nigerian households. The claim, first made in March 2026 and reiterated at subsequent engagements, has become a central plank of the government’s messaging on food security as the 2027 general elections approach.

Kyari, speaking at the Quarterly Citizens/Stakeholders Engagement Retreat on Agricultural Transformation held at the Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja on March 6, 2026, said the government’s focus on boosting local production and reducing reliance on imports was beginning to yield results. “Our efforts are starting to pay off, with a notable impact on food prices,” he said. “In fact, prices of essential food commodities have dropped by 50 per cent nationwide. This is in contrast to previous years when food prices skyrocketed, way beyond what most Nigerians could afford.” He reiterated the claim in June 2026, saying food prices had dropped by up to 50 per cent nationwide and that the administration had prioritised food security as a central pillar of national stability. The Ministry of Agriculture has consistently amplified the message through its official channels, and the claim has featured prominently in government communications on the success of its agricultural policies.

The government’s confidence rests on data showing a sharp decline in the year-on-year prices of certain staples. National Bureau of Statistics data for January 2026 showed a 48.65 per cent decrease in the price of one kilogramme of brown beans compared to January 2025, a 39.10 per cent decrease in the price of one kilogramme of garri, a 17.87 per cent decrease in the price of onions, and a 10.94 per cent decline in the price of locally produced rice. The NBS also reported that food inflation fell to 8.98 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, the first single-digit decline in a decade. The minister has cited these figures as evidence that the government’s interventions, including the distribution of over 1.9 million bags of fertiliser to nearly one million farmers, the provision of high-quality seeds, agrochemicals and pest management packs, and the development of key value chains including rice, maize, wheat, cassava, tomato and oil palm, are producing measurable results.

However, a fact-check by DUBAWA, the Nigerian fact-checking organisation, found that while the year-on-year declines in specific commodities were accurate, the broader claim required significant qualification. The fact-check noted that the declines must be understood against a steep base of comparison. Bean prices, for instance, had risen by 151.75 per cent year-on-year from January 2024 to January 2025, meaning the subsequent 48.65 per cent decrease still left prices at levels far above where they were before the Tinubu administration’s reforms. Yam tuber prices experienced a year-on-year increase of 120.78 per cent between January 2024 and January 2025, and although yam prices fell on a month-on-month basis, they were still 3.74 per cent higher than in January 2025. The fact-check concluded that while the minister’s specific data points were accurate, the characterisation of a 50 per cent nationwide drop in food prices did not reflect the experience of many Nigerians in local markets.

The picture from the market supports that scepticism. A September 2026 market survey found that a 50-kilogramme bag of rice in Lagos sold for around N70,000, while a crate of eggs cost approximately N6,000. Reports from October 2026 indicated that a 50kg bag of rice formerly sold between N60,000 and N63,000 was then being sold between N68,000 and N71,000, depending on the brand. A survey by United Capital Research showed broad food-price moderation in September 2026 compared with August, with medium-sized yam declining by 13.5 per cent and tomatoes falling by 9.5 per cent, but these were month-on-month changes from a high base, not a 50 per cent reduction from the previous year. The National Bureau of Statistics reported food inflation at 19.57 per cent year-on-year in August 2026, down from 25.30 per cent a year earlier but still far above the single-digit figure the minister had cited for January. Food inflation at 19.57 per cent means food prices were still rising, just more slowly than before.

The minister himself has acknowledged that increased production has not yet translated into lower prices for consumers. In September 2026, he attributed continued high food costs to gaps in processing, storage and distribution despite increased agricultural production. He projected that the 2026 harvest would surpass the 2025 bumper harvest, citing improved productivity, stabilised input prices and government interventions, but acknowledged that the processing and distribution gaps continued to keep prices high. The distinction between production and affordability is critical. Nigeria’s food system is constrained by poor post-harvest handling, inadequate storage infrastructure, high transportation costs and weak market regulation, all of which mean that even when farmers produce more, the savings do not necessarily reach the consumer.

The broader food security outlook remains challenging. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has warned that about 35 million Nigerians could face acute hunger in 2026. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network has reported that elevated food prices and conflict continue to sustain food insecurity across northern Nigeria, with staple food prices remaining significantly above the five-year average. The Food and Agriculture Organisation has projected uncertain production prospects for 2026 cereal crops, and the United States Department of Agriculture has forecast a five per cent decrease in corn production and a six per cent decline in rice production, driven by higher input costs, rising insecurity and lower domestic prices.

For Nigerian households, the debate over food prices is not an abstraction. A 50kg bag of rice at N70,000 is beyond the reach of many families, and the monthly national minimum wage of N70,000 means that a single bag of rice can consume an entire month’s earnings. The government’s claim of a 50 per cent reduction may be accurate for specific commodities at specific moments, but it does not reflect the sustained, broad-based affordability that Nigerians experience in their daily lives. As the 2027 elections approach, the gap between the government’s narrative and the reality in the markets will remain a central political issue, and the minister’s claim will continue to be tested against the prices Nigerians pay at the market and the meals they are able to put on their tables.

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