Reported by: Ijeoma G | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.
Lagos, Nigeria — Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State has sounded a forceful alarm about what he describes as a troubling shift in Nigeria’s political landscape, warning that the nation’s democratic system is showing clear signs of devolving toward a one-party state. In a detailed commentary published in his newsletter The Business of Governance, Makinde framed his concerns as more than political rhetoric, painting them instead as a pressing national issue that could shape Nigeria’s future ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Makinde’s warning, released on April 6, 2026, draws on a series of developments within Nigeria’s major political parties, actions by electoral and judicial institutions, and what he perceives as the marginalisation of opposition voices. He expressed deep concern that recent events are eroding the core democratic principles of political plurality, accountability, and balanced competition. “Developments within the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the African Democratic Congress, ADC, along with recent positions taken by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, and the judiciary, are raising important questions,” he wrote. “These are not just political issues; they concern anyone who believes in the future of democracy in our country.”
Central to Makinde’s argument is his view that opposition groups are being systematically constrained, fragmented, or pushed to the margins of Nigeria’s political system. He warned that those who speak out are increasingly subjected to threats and diminished influence, a dynamic he believes undermines the checks and balances necessary for a healthy democracy. “Today, voices that speak up against Nigeria devolving into a one-party state are being openly threatened,” Makinde said, stressing that a vibrant democracy depends on credible alternatives and engaged citizens, not silence or disengagement.
Makinde’s commentary is rooted in broader anxieties over the state of Nigeria’s democratic competition. The All Progressives Congress, the party of President Bola Tinubu, currently holds dominant positions across the federal and many state governments. This dominance has been amplified by a wave of defections from opposition parties, internal divisions in historically significant parties like the PDP, and legal disputes affecting party structures, developments that critics say weaken the ability of opposition groups to compete on a level political playing field.
Support for Makinde’s concerns has also emerged from other political figures. Veteran journalist and political figure Dele Momodu, a chieftain of the African Democratic Congress, echoed similar warnings about the dangers of a one-party drift in comments on national television. Momodu argued that attempts to undermine opposition parties are part of a broader strategy that could weaken democratic competition and reduce political choice for voters. He cited what he described as miscalculations by ruling party leaders who once assumed key opposition figures such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Labour Party leader Peter Obi, and former governor Rabiu Kwankwaso would never collaborate against a single ruling party.
Makinde’s commentary also touched on what he sees as worrying signs within major opposition parties. The Peoples Democratic Party, once Nigeria’s dominant force for nearly two decades after military rule, has been grappling with internal crises, leadership rifts, and legal challenges that have resulted in conflicting court orders and questions about party legitimacy. These internal struggles, amplified by defections and factional disputes, have raised concerns about the party’s capacity to offer a cohesive and credible challenge to the ruling party.
Beyond individual party dynamics, Makinde singled out recent decisions by INEC and judicial outcomes as elements feeding into the larger narrative of democratic strain. While he did not allege outright illegal conduct, he argued that these developments have contributed to a political environment in which opposition parties struggle to maintain institutional stability and relevance. Critics outside Makinde’s camp have interpreted these controversies as part of normal political contestation, while others see them as symptomatic of deeper structural imbalances that could weaken Nigeria’s democratic foundations.
Responses from the ruling party have been dismissive of claims that President Tinubu or the APC is orchestrating a one-party state. A senior APC figure in Osun State, Olatunbosun Oyintiloye, urged opposition parties to focus on resolving their internal issues rather than blaming the president for their challenges. He pointed to the existence of 21 registered political parties in Nigeria and insisted that competition remains alive ahead of the 2027 elections, calling accusations of deliberate marginalisation false and unsubstantiated.
The broader political context for these debates is Nigeria’s approaching general elections in 2027, a cycle that opposition leaders and civil society groups say will be a critical test of democratic resilience. Conversations about electoral fairness, the role of INEC, the influence of the judiciary in political disputes, and the capacity of opposition coalitions to mount effective campaigns have become increasingly intense. Observers note that without a unified or coherent opposition front, the ruling party could further consolidate its power, reinforcing fears of de facto single-party dominance even if formal multiparty structures remain in place.
Political analysts caution that the debate over a one-party drift reflects deeper structural challenges in Nigerian politics, including patronage networks, loyalty shifts among political elites, and the financial asymmetry between the ruling party and fragmented opposition groups. Some observers argue that while Nigeria’s democratic institutions are formally intact, their effective capacity to manage competition and ensure accountability under stress is being tested.
For many Nigerians, Makinde’s warning resonates as both a caution and a call to action. By framing the issue as a matter that transcends partisanship, he has sought to galvanise public engagement in defending democratic plurality and institutional independence. He emphasised that Nigeria’s democratic journey is not irreversible but requires active participation from citizens, civil society, political leaders, and institutions alike.
As the political season intensifies ahead of 2027, the nation’s democracy appears to be confronting a critical juncture. Will Nigeria uphold a competitive multiparty system with robust opposition voices, or will dominant party dynamics continue their current momentum? The debate ignited by Governor Makinde’s warning underscores the centrality of these questions to Nigeria’s political future.
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