Why Gbajabiamila Told ADC Rep Not to Defect to APC

Reported by: Ijeoma G | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.

A viral video of Femi Gbajabiamila, Chief of Staff to President Bola Tinubu, has thrown Nigerian political circles into a fresh debate after he was captured openly advising a lawmaker from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to remain in the opposition party and “scatter them.” The footage, recorded at a birthday celebration in Abuja, shows Gbajabiamila urging Leke Abejide, the House of Representatives member representing Yagba East/Yagba West/Mopamuro Federal Constituency in Kogi State, to ignore defection overtures from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and instead consolidate his influence within the crisis-ridden ADC. The advice was a direct rebuttal to former Kogi Governor Yahaya Bello, who had recently called on Abejide to join the APC. Gbajabiamila was unequivocal: “Don’t come to APC. Stay in ADC and scatter them. We like what you’re doing. Don’t mind former governor Yahaya Bello, who said you should join APC. No, no, no, stay in ADC and win your election.”

At first glance, the instruction might seem counterintuitive. Why would a senior official of the ruling party, whose primary interest is to weaken opposition forces, advise a politician not to defect but to remain within the opposing camp? The answer lies in the intricate calculus of Nigerian electoral politics and the deep internal fractures currently tearing the ADC apart. The party is embroiled in a bitter leadership tussle between two major factions: one loyal to former Senate President David Mark and another led by Nafiu Bala Gombe, to which Abejide belongs. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declined to recognise either faction pending a final court ruling, leaving the party in a state of legal and political limbo. The Mark-led faction recently went a step further, expelling Abejide, Bala, and several others over allegations of anti-party activities and what the leadership described as an attempt to destabilise the party from within.

For Gbajabiamila and the APC, having Abejide defect to the ruling party would actually reduce the pressure on the ADC. A defection would consolidate the party’s forces, potentially allowing the Mark-led faction to gain a clearer mandate to reorganise and prepare for the 2027 elections. However, by keeping Abejide inside the ADC, the crisis continues. Gbajabiamila has essentially asked Abejide to act as a spoiler, preventing the opposition from coalescing into a formidable electoral force. The Chief of Staff made this strategic dimension explicit when he praised the lawmaker for “doing a great job” for the APC by causing problems within the ADC. His subsequent instruction to “fight them, scatter them” and “hold on to your party” is designed to ensure that the internal litigation and factional infighting persist, sapping the ADC’s energy and resources ahead of the general election.

The backdrop to this incident is the growing momentum of opposition figures coalescing around the ADC. The party has emerged as a potential vehicle for heavyweights such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Labour Party candidate Peter Obi, former Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi, and former Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. The prospect of a united opposition challenging President Tinubu in 2027 is a serious concern for the APC, and destabilising the ADC’s structure from within is a classic divide-and-rule tactic. By backing the Bala faction and encouraging its members to stay put, Gbajabiamila is betting that the legal and political battles will drag on, causing key members to lose faith in the platform and potentially forcing them to seek alternatives at the last minute.

Abejide himself has admitted that his political loyalties are fluid. In a recent television interview, he declared his admiration for President Tinubu and maintained close ties with APC figures, admitting that his loyalties cut across both parties. When asked about his preferred candidate for the 2027 presidential race, he did not hesitate to name Tinubu regardless of party affiliation. This ambiguity is precisely what Gbajabiamila is exploiting. Abejide is effectively a bridge between the opposition and the ruling party, and by keeping him inside the ADC, the APC retains a channel to influence the party’s internal dynamics without taking formal responsibility.

The response from civil society has been swift and scathing. Political activist Timi Frank has petitioned the United States government, where Gbajabiamila is also a citizen, demanding an investigation into the Chief of Staff’s conduct. Frank described the remarks as “reckless” and capable of undermining Nigeria’s democracy, arguing that they suggest a deliberate attempt by the Presidency to weaken opposition parties and influence the judiciary. Frank insisted that Gbajabiamila’s resignation was the only honourable course of action, stating, “If such a statement were made in the United States, the official involved would have resigned forthwith.”

Within the ADC, stakeholders have expressed concern that Gbajabiamila’s statement could embolden factional elements and complicate reconciliation efforts. Party insiders argue that the comment reinforces their claims that external political forces are backing efforts to weaken the ADC ahead of 2027. The situation is expected to worsen as the Supreme Court hearing approaches, with Abejide having previously stated that he will leave the ADC if the court rules in favour of the David Mark-led faction. Such a defection would be a major victory for the APC, but until then, Gbajabiamila’s calculus remains clear: a fractured ADC is a weaker ADC, and keeping Abejide inside the tent fighting is far more valuable than bringing him into the APC’s fold. The viral video has inadvertently exposed the brutal strategic logic of Nigerian power politics, where keeping an enemy divided is sometimes more effective than absorbing the pieces.

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