Reported by: Oahimire Omone Precious | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.
Claims that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approved an immediate nationwide increase in petrol prices to ₦1,800 per litre effective April 9, 2026, have not been substantiated by any official government directive, even as Nigeria continues to experience sharp fuel price volatility driven by global and domestic economic pressures.
A detailed review of available data and recent developments across Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector indicates that while petrol prices have indeed risen significantly in recent months, there is no verified policy announcement mandating a uniform increase to ₦1,800 per litre across 17 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Instead, pricing remains largely deregulated and influenced by market forces following the removal of fuel subsidies in 2023.
Recent industry reports show that petrol prices across Nigeria have already been fluctuating widely, with pump prices ranging between approximately ₦1,200 and ₦1,350 per litre in March 2026, depending on location and supplier. In some areas, particularly urban centres, prices have climbed slightly higher, reflecting supply costs and distribution dynamics.
Further data from early April indicates that the underlying cost of petrol importation has surged dramatically, with import parity estimates ranging between ₦1,700 and ₦2,300 per litre. These figures reflect the true market cost of fuel when accounting for international crude oil prices, shipping, insurance, exchange rates, and logistics.
This gap between actual supply costs and retail pump prices has created sustained upward pressure on the market, prompting analysts to warn that retail prices could approach ₦2,000 per litre if current conditions persist.
The current pricing environment is largely shaped by global oil market disruptions, including geopolitical tensions that have driven crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. These developments have increased the cost of refined petroleum products worldwide, including in Nigeria, where domestic refining capacity remains insufficient to fully meet demand.
Although the Dangote refinery began large-scale operations with expectations of stabilising local supply, its impact has been moderated by challenges in sourcing crude oil at competitive prices. Nigeria continues to rely partly on imported crude and refined products, exposing domestic fuel prices to international market fluctuations.
In response to rising costs, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has reportedly increased crude allocations to the refinery in an effort to ease supply pressures. However, these measures have only partially mitigated the impact of global price shocks, and depot-level petrol prices have continued to rise.
Industry stakeholders, including major fuel marketers, have confirmed that depot prices and landing costs are the primary drivers of current retail pricing trends. Marketers adjust pump prices based on these costs, leading to regional variations rather than a single nationwide rate.
This market-driven system explains why petrol prices differ across states and even between filling stations within the same city. Factors such as transportation distance, storage costs, and supply chain efficiency contribute to these variations, making a centrally imposed uniform price less consistent with current deregulation policy.
Despite the absence of official confirmation, the viral claim of a ₦1,800 price hike has triggered public anxiety, highlighting the sensitivity of fuel pricing in Nigeria. Petrol remains a critical component of daily life, influencing transportation, food prices, electricity generation, and overall cost of living.
Economic analysts note that even without a formal directive, prices could gradually move toward the ₦1,800 range if current trends continue. However, such changes would likely occur through market adjustments rather than a direct presidential order.
The federal government has consistently maintained that fuel subsidy removal was necessary to reduce fiscal burdens and redirect resources toward infrastructure and social development. Officials argue that maintaining artificially low fuel prices was unsustainable and contributed to budget deficits over time.
However, the transition to a fully deregulated market has had immediate consequences for consumers, including rising transportation costs and increased prices for goods and services. Labour unions and civil society groups have repeatedly called for measures to cushion the impact, including wage adjustments and targeted social support.
The lack of clear, real-time communication around fuel pricing has also contributed to the spread of misinformation. Analysts emphasise that in a deregulated environment, price changes are often gradual and market-driven, rather than announced through sweeping national directives.
As of now, the most credible evidence indicates that petrol prices in Nigeria are rising due to economic fundamentals rather than a newly introduced government-mandated price of ₦1,800 per litre. While such a price point is within the range of current import costs, it has not been officially adopted as a uniform retail rate.
The situation underscores the broader challenges facing Nigeria’s energy sector, including dependence on global markets, exchange rate instability, and infrastructure limitations. It also highlights the importance of transparency and accurate information in managing public expectations during periods of economic transition.
For millions of Nigerians, the key concern remains affordability, as fuel costs continue to shape the broader economic landscape. Whether prices stabilise or rise further will depend on a combination of global oil trends, domestic production capacity, and policy responses in the coming months.
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