Reported by: Ijeoma G | Edited by: Gabriel Osa
Recent claims that the Dangote Refinery has increased petrol prices from ₦1,245 per litre to ₦1,275 per litre are not supported by the most recent verified data available from multiple industry and media reports. Current confirmed figures indicate a different pricing trajectory, suggesting that while prices have indeed been volatile and rising in recent weeks, the specific figures circulating may be inaccurate or unverified.
As of the latest credible reports in March 2026, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its ex-depot (gantry) price of Premium Motor Spirit to about ₦1,175 per litre following a series of rapid increases driven by global oil market pressures. This marked a sharp jump from earlier levels such as ₦995 and ₦874 per litre recorded within the same month, reflecting an unusually fast escalation in domestic fuel pricing.
However, shortly after these increases, the refinery announced a price reduction, bringing the gantry price down to approximately ₦1,075 per litre. This adjustment was linked to a temporary easing in global crude oil prices and was described as the first downward revision after multiple consecutive hikes.
What complicates public perception is the distinction between ex-depot prices and pump prices. While the refinery may sell at around ₦1,075–₦1,175 per litre, the actual retail price at filling stations is typically higher due to logistics, transportation, and marketer margins. Industry sources indicate that pump prices can range between ₦1,250 and ₦1,300 per litre or more depending on location, particularly outside major urban centres. This retail variation may be contributing to reports or assumptions that prices have reached ₦1,275 per litre.
The broader context behind the fluctuations is tied to structural and global factors. The Dangote Refinery has repeatedly stated that it is exposed to international crude oil prices, as it often purchases crude at global market rates rather than relying solely on domestic supply. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have pushed crude prices above $100 per barrel in recent periods, directly influencing local fuel costs.
Additionally, supply chain disruptions, foreign exchange pressures, and policy shifts within Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector have all contributed to instability in pricing. The suspension of petrol loading operations at times, as well as uncertainty around crude supply agreements, has further intensified speculation and market volatility.
Forecasts within the sector suggest that prices could continue to rise, with some projections indicating the possibility of petrol reaching as high as ₦1,400 per litre if current pressures persist. This underscores the fragile balance between domestic refining ambitions and global oil market realities.
In practical terms, while Nigerians are experiencing rising fuel costs and associated economic pressure, the specific claim of an official Dangote Refinery price increase to ₦1,275 per litre is not confirmed by current verified reports. What is accurate is that prices remain highly unstable, with rapid upward and downward adjustments occurring within short timeframes.
The situation remains fluid, and further changes are likely as both global oil dynamics and domestic policy decisions continue to evolve.
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