Reported by: Oahimire Omone Precious | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.
Nigeria’s aviation sector is in the grip of its worst crisis in years as the price of Jet A1 fuel has exploded by more than 270% since the end of February 2026, forcing domestic airlines to warn of an imminent shutdown and pushing the cost of a one‑way economy ticket to a staggering N400,000‑N500,000. The sharp increase has not only dominated the front pages of major newspapers but has also triggered crunch talks between the federal government, oil marketers and airline operators, leaving millions of air travellers uncertain about the future of domestic air travel.
The crisis was triggered by the outbreak of the US‑Israel war in Iran and the subsequent shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that carries about one‑fifth of the world’s fuel supply. Between the end of February and mid‑April 2026, the price of Jet A1 in Nigeria jumped from about N900 per litre to a peak of N3,300 per litre. In response, the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) threatened to suspend all domestic flights from 20 April 2026 unless the government and fuel marketers intervened urgently. According to an Economic Times report, the operators accused marketers of “artificially inflating” prices far beyond the global surge.
In a bid to avert a total shutdown, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) stepped in and fixed a new price band. Based on Platts average prices recorded between 17 and 23 April 2026, the agency set a maximum Jet A1 price of N1,988 per litre in Lagos and N2,037 per litre in Abuja. The new benchmarks took effect on 27 April 2026, but the regulator warned that purchases outside the price window could attract higher rates due to continuing volatility linked to the US‑Iran conflict.
Despite the cap, the cost of aviation fuel remains three times higher than the level at which carriers could operate profitably. One aviation source was quoted by TheCable as saying that a one‑way economy ticket might now have to be priced between N400,000 and N500,000 to keep airlines afloat. That forecast has sent shock waves through the public, as such fares would put air travel far beyond the reach of most Nigerians. A separate report by ThisDay indicated that ticket prices for a one‑hour domestic flight could rise by more than 100%, moving from around N92,000 to between N150,000 and N250,000, effectively erasing whatever gains the travelling public had enjoyed from earlier reforms.
The crisis has exposed deeper structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s air transport system. Fuel typically accounts for 30% to 40% of airline operating costs in Nigeria, compared with a global average of 20% to 25%. The country’s high‑density, short‑hop routes amplify the impact of every naira increase in the fuel price, and the limited fleet sizes of domestic carriers leave them with little room to absorb external shocks. Analysts have decried the situation as a “structural weakness” that requires urgent policy intervention, not just temporary palliatives.
The threat of a shutdown has so far been averted by two rounds of government intervention. First, the AON temporarily suspended its planned strike after a direct appeal by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo. Then, on 24 April 2026, President Bola Tinubu approved a 30% discount on outstanding debts owed by local carriers to aviation agencies, including the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) and the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA). The debt relief was described by Keyamo as “emergency relief rather than a subsidy,” intended to ease the cash flow pressures on airlines that are already struggling to pay for fuel at the new price levels.
Yet, even with the debt write‑off, the industry is not out of the woods. The AON has warned that unless the government guarantees a stable and affordable supply of Jet A1, a full seven‑day shutdown could still begin as early as 30 April 2026. At the same time, the Aviation Ground Handlers Association of Nigeria (AGHAN) has served its own ultimatum, asking airlines to settle billions of naira in outstanding debts or face a suspension of ground handling services. With both the supply of fuel and the viability of ground support hanging in the balance, the coming weeks will be the most testing for Nigeria’s aviation sector since the COVID‑19 pandemic.
For the average passenger, the immediate fear is that flying will become a luxury reserved for the few. Ticket prices at the N500,000 level for a domestic journey would be comparable to the cost of many international flights, forcing travellers to reconsider their options. As the newspaper headlines have starkly warned, the crisis has laid bare the fragility of the country’s air transport system and the urgent need for a long‑term strategy to insulate it from global energy shocks. Until that happens, every increase in the price of crude oil will automatically translate into a fresh spike in the cost of a boarding pass.
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