Reported by: Oahimire Omone Precious | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.
The economic pressure on millions of Nigerians intensified again on Wednesday as Africa’s largest oil refinery inflicted the second major price hike in a single week. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its ex‑depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to N1,350 per litre, a N75 jump from the previous N1,275 per litre. The adjustment, which takes effect immediately, was confirmed by a senior refinery official and the pricing platform Petroleumprice.ng. The move has forced downstream operators to quickly revise their templates, with fears mounting that pump prices may now approach or even exceed N1,400 per litre at many filling stations across the country.
This relentless upward spiral stems from a complex web of global and local pressures spanning crude oil market volatility, foreign exchange scarcity, and logistical bottlenecks. Industry sources attribute the increase mainly to the cost of feedstock. A reliable market source told Vanguard that the refinery’s pricing template has been adjusted and that all stakeholders are expected to comply, adding that oil marketers are likely to raise pump prices in the coming days. The development comes barely a week after the refinery raised its ex‑depot price from N1,200 to N1,275 per litre, marking the second N75 increase in just seven days and underlining the breakneck pace of adjustments in Nigeria’s deregulated fuel market.
The fresh hike follows a temporary suspension in the issuance of pro forma invoices (PFIs) earlier this week, a move that market players said sharply tightened product availability. “The suspension of PFI created a short‑term supply squeeze,” a senior refinery official explained. “When you combine that with international crude price movements and logistics costs, it becomes inevitable that depot prices will adjust upward. What we are seeing is a direct market response to those realities”. This turbulence has been compounded by persistent global crude price volatility driven largely by the prolonged US‑Iran conflict, which has disrupted production and supply flows across the Middle East. Although international crude benchmarks briefly softened amid easing geopolitical tensions, Nigerian domestic market dynamics have overwhelmingly dictated local pricing decisions.
Behind the scenes, the Dangote Refinery has struggled to secure adequate local crude supplies, forcing it to turn to expensive imports. The refinery needs between 13 and 15 crude cargoes per month but has been able to source only about five locally. This shortfall has compelled it to purchase the remainder on the international market at hefty premiums. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has since increased its monthly allocation to the facility to seven cargoes, yet the gap remains significant. Consequently, Nigerians now pay roughly 65 percent more for gasoline compared with the period before the refinery’s full commissioning, a spike that stands as the largest among major African economies.
Amid rising public anger, a senior management official of the Dangote Group recently revealed that the $20 billion plant has been effectively subsidising the petrol and diesel it sells to the domestic market, absorbing part of the cost burden to keep prices below import parity. The claim does little, however, to ease the pain of consumers who are now contending with pump prices close to N1,400 per litre in some areas. The steady rise in fuel costs, linked to crude oil prices, exchange rate pressure and supply constraints, continues to hit disposable incomes and drive up the cost of everything from food to transport.
The government has made clear there will be no return to a fuel subsidy regime. On Tuesday in Paris, Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister for the Economy Taiwo Oyedele declared that the federal government would neither reintroduce fuel subsidies nor impose price controls. “We will not bring back fuel subsidy because it creates destruction for the economy, and we won’t introduce price control because we believe in the market,” Oyedele said during a meeting between President Bola Tinubu and global investors. The remarks suggest that Nigerians must brace for further price adjustments as the deregulated market finds its equilibrium, with the Dangote Refinery now acting as the dominant price setter.
For ordinary Nigerians, the immediate outlook is bleak. The N75 ex‑depot increase is expected to trigger a new wave of price rises at pumps across major consumption centres, with marketers passing on the extra costs to consumers already facing decades‑high inflation. The rapid price movements signal a transitional phase in Nigeria’s downstream sector, where domestic refining is gradually replacing imports but remains acutely vulnerable to international cost variables. Many are already struggling to keep up, and the fear of yet another hike is hanging heavy over households, transporters, and small businesses.
The toll on daily life is becoming impossible to ignore. Commercial drivers have begun adjusting fares, and market traders warn that fresh hikes will immediately push up the cost of foodstuffs and other essentials. For a nation where purchasing power has already been severely depleted, the N1,350 threshold threatens to push transportation costs beyond the reach of millions. Civil society groups have demanded urgent palliatives, but with the government insisting on market‑driven pricing, there is little sign of relief on the horizon. The Dangote Refinery’s staggered price adjustments appear set to continue, and until domestic crude supply and foreign exchange stability improve, the average Nigerian will bear the heaviest burden.
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