Reported by: Oahimire Omone Precious | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.
The defection of Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde to the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) is a deliberate conspiracy to split the southern voting bloc and weaken the opposition ahead of the 2027 presidential election, according to Professor Okey Ikechukwu, Executive Director of the Development Specs Academy. Ikechukwu dismissed the claim that the PDP‑APM alliance is a genuine opposition coalition, arguing that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is incapable of fielding a national candidate and that Makinde’s real aim is not to win the presidency but to fracture the vote in a way that benefits other political interests.
In his analysis, Ikechukwu was blunt about the PDP’s prospects. “Whether Makinde chooses to go to the moon and back, whether Wike and his group decide to deploy everything for the election, one obvious thing is PDP will not be a national force. They will not be particularly impactful and may end up not fielding a candidate for 2027. And if they should come up with a candidate, it will be in order to split votes.” Ikechukwu’s comments go to the heart of a deepening crisis within the main opposition party, which has been torn apart by a protracted leadership struggle between the faction loyal to Federal Capital Territory Minister Nyesom Wike and the group backing Governor Makinde.
The PDP has been in turmoil since a Supreme Court ruling on April 30, 2026, which nullified the national convention held in Ibadan in November 2025. The apex court held that the convention was conducted in disobedience to court orders. The ruling has created a vacuum, with two parallel leadership structures claiming legitimacy. The Wike‑backed faction, led by the Abdulrahman Mohammed National Working Committee, insists that the judgment has affirmed its control over the party. The Makinde‑aligned camp, led by former Minister Tanimu Turaki, has continued to operate an Interim National Working Committee, arguing that the Supreme Court’s decision did not fully resolve the leadership issue. That faction has now effectively collapsed its structure into the APM, a minor political party that has suddenly become the vehicle for Makinde’s presidential ambition.
The Oyo governor formally declared his intention to contest the presidency on the platform of the APM at a mega rally at Mapo Hall in Ibadan on Thursday, May 14, 2026. The event was promoted as a unity mega rally of the PDP‑APM alliance, but the Wike faction dismissed it as a public celebration of Makinde’s movement to the APM and nothing more. The PDP leadership loyal to Wike has disowned any alliance with the APM, describing the narrative as “political 419.” The split leaves the opposition fragmented, with the Wike faction vowing to field its own presidential candidate, while Makinde’s camp proceeds under the APM banner.
Ikechukwu’s analysis points to a strategic calculation behind Makinde’s move. The South‑West is the country’s most politically sophisticated and densely populated region, and no candidate can win the presidency without securing a substantial share of its votes. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) already enjoys a strong foothold in the zone, with President Bola Tinubu, himself a South‑West politician, likely to dominate the region in a direct contest. By splintering the opposition vote, Makinde’s candidacy could drain votes away from other southern candidates, making it easier for the APC to consolidate the region without a strong, united challenge.
The defection has drawn sharp reactions from other political figures. Wike has consistently described Makinde’s presidential ambition as “dead on arrival” and has accused the governor of trying to mislead the public with false claims of an alliance. “What you have is Makinde joining APM to be able to actualise his presidential ambition, which is already dead on arrival,” Wike said. The minister also challenged the governor to name a single bank account opened under the name of the alleged PDP‑APM alliance, insisting that no such coalition exists. “There is no alliance between PDP and Allied Peoples Movement (APM) or any other political party, as the case may be,” Wike said. “INEC also knows that there is nothing called a PDP‑APM alliance.”
For its part, the Makinde camp has rejected accusations of bad faith. The governor has argued that the PDP‑APM coalition represents the beginning of a broader opposition movement aimed at offering Nigerians a genuine alternative to the APC. At the Ibadan rally, he described his decision as a tactical move to bypass the internal friction of a crowded PDP primary and to create a new political force capable of challenging the ruling party. However, Ikechukwu’s intervention suggests that many political analysts view the defection as a spoiler strategy rather than a serious bid for power.
The fragmentation of the opposition is not limited to the PDP. The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), which has attracted former Labour Party candidate Peter Obi and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, has emerged as a third force. The party has zoned its presidential ticket to the South and adopted a single‑term rotation formula designed to appeal to northern voters. Obi has pledged to serve only one term, a promise that has become a central plank of his campaign. Meanwhile, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and other smaller parties are also preparing to field candidates, further diluting the anti‑APC vote.
The prospect of a splintered opposition has raised concerns among civil society groups and pro‑democracy advocates. Some have called for the establishment of a broad coalition that would select a single consensus candidate to challenge Tinubu. However, the deep personal and factional rivalries among opposition leaders have made such an alliance elusive. Ikechukwu’s warning that the PDP may not even field a candidate, or that any candidate it fields would be intended only to split votes, underscores the extent of the disintegration.
The 2027 election is now less than two years away, and the opposition is in disarray. The ruling APC, which has already begun its primaries, appears to be the only national party with a clear structure and an incumbent president seeking re‑election. Whether Makinde’s defection is a genuine attempt to build a new political force or a calculated move to divide the southern vote, its immediate effect is to deepen the opposition’s crisis. The question that remains is whether any opposition candidate can unite the fragmented political landscape in time to mount a credible challenge to Tinubu. For now, Professor Okey Ikechukwu’s assessment that the PDP is not a national force and that any candidate it fields would be for the purpose of vote‑splitting may prove to be prophetic.
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