Reported by: Ijeoma G | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.
Fresh political tensions have emerged in Nigeria’s evolving pre-2027 landscape following a sharp exchange between presidential adviser Bayo Onanuga and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar over the contentious issue of power rotation between the country’s northern and southern regions. The disagreement reflects deeper divisions within Nigeria’s political elite and underscores the enduring sensitivity of zoning arrangements, a convention widely regarded as central to maintaining national balance since the country’s return to democratic rule in 1999.
The controversy was triggered by remarks made by Abubakar during a televised interview in which he questioned the prevailing narrative around regional equity in presidential power sharing. According to him, the South has held the presidency for a longer cumulative period than the North since the advent of the Fourth Republic. He argued that the South’s tenure amounts to approximately 18 years, while the North’s tenure stands at about 10 years, raising questions about claims that the North has dominated power.
Abubakar’s comments were widely interpreted as a justification for his potential participation in the 2027 presidential election, which he has indicated may be his final attempt to secure the office. His stance that he is not bound by informal zoning arrangements has sparked criticism from political opponents, particularly within the ruling All Progressives Congress, who view the rotation principle as essential for national cohesion.
In a strongly worded response posted on social media, Onanuga dismissed Abubakar’s argument as self-serving and historically selective. He accused the former vice-president of deliberately ignoring key contextual factors that shaped Nigeria’s leadership timeline, particularly the premature end of President Umaru Yar’Adua’s administration. Yar’Adua, who assumed office in 2007, died in 2010 while in office, leading to the constitutional succession of then Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner.
Onanuga argued that this transition created what he described as an “accidental breach” in the expected rotation between the North and the South, thereby distorting the apparent distribution of power. He maintained that such an anomaly should not be used to invalidate the broader principle of zoning, which political parties have historically adopted as a mechanism to balance competing regional interests in a diverse federation.
The presidential adviser further criticized Abubakar’s political trajectory, particularly his decision to contest the 2023 presidential election under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party despite the expectation within the party that power should shift to the South after eight years of a northern presidency under Muhammadu Buhari. According to Onanuga, this move contributed significantly to internal divisions within the PDP and ultimately weakened its electoral prospects.
He went on to assert that President Bola Tinubu, who assumed office in 2023, is entitled to complete a full two-term tenure in line with precedent. Drawing a parallel with Buhari’s eight-year administration, Onanuga insisted that Tinubu’s presidency should not be prematurely challenged on the basis of zoning debates. He concluded that any attempt to disrupt this trajectory would amount to a disregard for established political conventions.
The exchange has reignited longstanding debates about the role and relevance of zoning in Nigeria’s democracy. While the arrangement is not enshrined in the constitution, it has functioned as a guiding principle within major political parties, particularly the PDP and the APC. Proponents argue that it fosters inclusivity and mitigates regional tensions in a country marked by ethnic, religious, and cultural diversity. Critics, however, contend that it undermines meritocracy and limits the pool of eligible candidates.
Political analysts note that the current dispute is indicative of broader strategic positioning ahead of the next general election cycle. Abubakar, who has contested the presidency multiple times, remains a prominent figure in opposition politics and continues to command a significant support base. His assertion that zoning should not restrict his ambitions suggests a willingness to challenge entrenched party norms in pursuit of electoral viability.
At the same time, the ruling party appears determined to defend both the incumbency of President Tinubu and the legitimacy of the zoning principle as it applies to the current political arrangement. Onanuga’s remarks can be seen as part of a broader effort to consolidate support for the administration while framing potential challengers as destabilizing forces.
The debate also highlights unresolved questions about how Nigeria should interpret its democratic evolution in light of unforeseen events such as the death of a sitting president. While the constitution provides clear guidelines for succession, the political implications of such transitions continue to shape narratives around equity and representation.
Public reactions to the exchange have been mixed, reflecting the diversity of opinion across the country. Some observers support Onanuga’s defense of zoning as a stabilizing factor, while others echo Abubakar’s call for a more flexible approach that prioritizes competence over regional considerations. Civil society groups have also weighed in, urging political leaders to focus on governance outcomes rather than prolonged disputes over power-sharing formulas.
As Nigeria approaches another electoral cycle, the issue of zoning is likely to remain a central theme in political discourse. The positions taken by key actors such as Abubakar and Onanuga not only influence party dynamics but also shape public perception of fairness and inclusivity within the democratic process.
For now, the Tinubu administration continues to emphasize continuity and adherence to established norms, while opposition figures signal readiness to challenge those norms in pursuit of political change. Whether these competing visions will converge or further polarize the political landscape remains to be seen.
What is clear, however, is that the debate over power rotation is far from settled, and its resolution will play a significant role in determining the direction of Nigeria’s democracy in the years ahead.
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