Reported by: Ijeoma G | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.
Nigeria has experienced a notable rebound in food inflation, with the cost of basic food items rising sharply after six months of relative moderation. According to the most recent Consumer Price Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics, food inflation climbed to 12.12 per cent in February 2026 on a year‑on‑year basis, a significant reversal from the single‑digit figure of 8.89 per cent recorded in January. This surge marks the return of double‑digit food price increases and signals renewed pressure on household budgets across the country.
The headline inflation rate for February, which reflects the average change in prices of goods and services consumed by households, eased marginally to 15.06 per cent from 15.10 per cent in January, but the underlying movement in the food segment reveals a different reality for ordinary Nigerians. While overall inflation decelerated slightly, food prices accelerated, showing that essential groceries are becoming more expensive even as the broader inflation figure appears to moderate.
Analysts and economists say the resurgence of food inflation represents a fresh challenge for millions of households already struggling with the cost of living. Food remains the largest component of household expenditure in Nigeria; for many families, it accounts for more than half of daily expenses. The renewed acceleration in food prices therefore has immediate implications for food affordability, nutrition and economic welfare.
Staple Foods Driving the Increase
The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the latest spike in food inflation to rising average prices for a range of staple food items. Key contributors include beans, yam flour, cassava tuber, crayfish, millet flour, cowpeas and certain vegetables such as carrots and okazi leaf. These staples form the backbone of everyday meals for millions of Nigerians, particularly those in low- and middle-income brackets.
Beans and yam flour, in particular, have become symbolically powerful indicators of cost pressures because of their cultural and dietary importance. Beans provide a key source of plant-based protein, while yam flour is central to local cuisine, especially in the southwestern and central regions. The rise in prices of these staples places additional strain on household budgets already affected by broader economic challenges.
Monthly data show that food prices did not just rise over the past year but also climbed sharply compared to January. The month-on-month food inflation rate for February stood at 4.69 per cent, a sharp rebound from the decline of 6.02 per cent seen the previous month. This pattern suggests that short-term price pressures within food markets have intensified after a period of relative relief.
Regional Variations and Disparities
The experiences of food price changes vary across Nigeria’s states. In some areas, food inflation on a year-on-year basis remained considerably above the national average. States such as Kogi, Adamawa and Benue recorded food inflation rates of more than 20 per cent, reflecting heavier cost burdens faced by residents there. In contrast, states like Katsina, Bauchi and Imo saw much smaller increases in food prices.
Such disparities point to a range of local factors influencing food supply and market dynamics. Differences in agricultural output, transport and logistics costs, seasonal growing conditions, and even local demand patterns can all affect the degree to which food prices rise or ease in particular regions.
Causes Behind the Surge
Several interacting factors help explain why food inflation has surged in Nigeria after a period of moderation:
Supply and production challenges: Nigeria’s agricultural sector, which should serve as the backbone of domestic food supply, continues to face structural challenges. Insecurity in rural farming areas, especially in the North and central regions, has disrupted harvests and limited production capacity. This structural weakness in the food system impairs consistent supply and contributes to higher market prices.
High input and transport costs: Farmers and food producers have cited rising input costs — including seeds, fertilisers, fuel and equipment — as a major factor driving up the cost of producing food. Transportation costs from farms to markets have also increased, partly due to high fuel prices and logistical bottlenecks.
Economic policy and exchange rate pressures: Broad economic forces such as Nigeria’s exchange rate volatility have made imported food and agricultural inputs more expensive. Though the government has aimed to support local production, Nigeria remains dependent on certain food imports and imported inputs, making the food system vulnerable to price swings in global markets.
Consumer demand dynamics: Even as inflation eased in some categories, consumer demand for staples remains strong. Combined with restricted supply, this can push prices upward, especially for goods with less elastic supply responses.
Impacts on Households and Livelihoods
The resurgence of food inflation threatens to weaken real household incomes, particularly for the poorest segments of society. When staple food prices rise faster than wages or general income growth, families are forced to spend a larger share of their budgets just to meet basic needs. This can squeeze out spending on education, health and savings, and may lead to greater food insecurity and malnutrition.
Economic observers warn that if food inflation continues to outpace wage growth and economic recovery, it could reverse some of the gains made in cost-of-living stability earlier in the year. For households already coping with other cost pressures — on housing, energy and transportation — a renewed spike in food prices could deepen hardship and increase poverty vulnerability.
Government and Policy Responses
Nigeria’s policymakers have acknowledged the renewed pressure on food prices and the broader economy. In recent months, the Central Bank of Nigeria trimmed benchmark interest rates in an attempt to stimulate economic activity and support price stability. However, experts note that monetary policy alone may not be sufficient to address supply-side bottlenecks that fundamentally drive food inflation.
Government officials have emphasised the need for renewed focus on agricultural productivity, infrastructure improvements and support for farmers to help stabilise food markets. Suggested interventions include expanding access to agricultural inputs, improving rural infrastructure, enhancing storage and reducing post-harvest losses to improve overall food availability and affordability.
International development organisations, economists and social advocates have also called for enhanced social protection measures, including targeted cash transfers and subsidised food programmes to protect the most vulnerable populations from the brunt of rising food costs.
Outlook and Future Risks
As the year progresses, analysts will closely monitor whether the recent rise in food inflation signals a short-lived shift or the start of a sustained uptrend. The complex interplay of supply constraints, economic policies, infrastructure challenges and regional disparities means that trends in food prices will remain a key barometer of Nigeria’s economic health.
For ordinary Nigerians, the rebound in food inflation underscores how fragile gains in price moderation can be and how quickly basic living costs can rise, especially for essential staples. Unless structural issues in food production and distribution are addressed in concert with broader macroeconomic management, the pressure on household budgets is likely to persist as a defining economic challenge.
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