Reported by Ariajegbe Sylvia Esezobor
Nigeria's daily crude oil production peaked at 1.84 million barrels in September 2026, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has disclosed, as the country recorded an average daily output of 1,717,030 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate during the month, a 2.34 per cent increase compared with August.
The figures, released by the NUPRC on Tuesday, showed that the lowest daily production during the month stood at 1.68 million barrels . In strict crude oil terms, excluding condensate, Nigeria produced an average of 1.53 million barrels per day in September, representing 102 per cent of the 1.5 million barrels per day quota assigned by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries .
The September performance means Nigeria has now met or exceeded its OPEC quota for five consecutive months. The country produced 1.53 million barrels per day in May, 1.55 million in June, 1.51 million in July, 1.5 million in August and 1.53 million in September . Condensate contributed approximately 0.19 million barrels per day to the combined output .
A breakdown of production by terminals and streams showed that the Forcados Terminal recorded the highest daily average output of 320,320 barrels per day, followed by the Bonny Terminal with 303,270 barrels per day . The two terminals accounted for more than a third of the country's combined daily production. Other terminals, including Qua Iboe, Escravos and Bonga, contributed to the overall output, though at lower volumes.
The NUPRC attributed the improved performance primarily to stable production operations across most producing assets and the absence of any major pipeline outage during the period under review . The commission said this enhanced operational stability supported improved production uptime and crude evacuation efficiency. It added that the sustained growth recorded in September reflected the continued commitment of operators and industry stakeholders to improving operational efficiency, maintaining asset integrity and enhancing production reliability across the Nigerian upstream petroleum sector .
The figures consolidate Nigeria's position as Africa's largest crude oil producer. The country's production trajectory has improved steadily since the beginning of 2026, when output was constrained by operational challenges at key assets. In February, production averaged 1.483 million barrels per day before rising to 1.546 million in March, 1.663 million in April, 1.700 million in May and 1.735 million in June, representing a 2.2 per cent growth month on month . The June performance was described as a 74-month high in strict crude oil terms, the highest since April 2020 .
The output figures come amid a broader debate over Nigeria's ability to meet domestic refining demand. The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed in October 2026 that Nigeria does not currently produce enough crude to supply the Dangote Petroleum Refinery with the 700,000 barrels per day it needs to operate at full capacity, forcing the refinery to import heavy crude to supplement domestic supply . The naira-for-crude arrangement introduced by the Tinubu administration was designed to provide some stability, but the fundamental constraint of insufficient free crude remains. The NUPRC has also reported that actual supply to local refineries under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation was 28.5 million barrels in the first quarter of 2026, representing a supply conversion rate of 36 to 46 per cent, with pricing gaps between producers and domestic refiners cited as the primary cause of the shortfall .
The political context of the production figures is significant. The 2027 general elections are less than four months away, with the presidential and National Assembly elections scheduled for January 16, and the governorship and state assembly elections for February 6. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is seeking a second term on the All Progressives Congress platform, while former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress, former Anambra Governor Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress and Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde of the Allied Peoples Movement are among the major challengers. The economy and the cost of living have emerged as the central issues in the campaign, and the government has consistently pointed to increased oil production as evidence that its reforms are stabilising the economy and improving fiscal revenues. Higher oil output translates into increased foreign exchange earnings and improved allocations to the three tiers of government, both of which are critical to the government's ability to fund infrastructure, wages and social programmes.
The oil and gas sector has also been a focal point of the government's reform agenda. The Petroleum Industry Act 2021, which established the NUPRC as the upstream regulator, has been credited with improving the regulatory environment and attracting investment. The NUPRC has reported that the number of active rigs has risen from fewer than 10 when the administration assumed office to more than 70 currently, a development the government says is critical to increasing production and achieving its target of raising crude output to about three million barrels per day . The Commission has also deepened collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Defence on non-kinetic strategies to protect oil and gas infrastructure, recognising that production stability depends on security in the Niger Delta .
For Nigeria, the September production figures represent a measure of progress in a sector that has historically underperformed relative to its potential. The country holds Africa's largest crude oil reserves, yet production has frequently fallen below OPEC quotas due to pipeline vandalism, crude oil theft, ageing infrastructure and operational disruptions. The sustained improvement recorded over the past five months suggests that efforts to address these challenges are yielding results, though the sector remains vulnerable to shocks. As the 2027 elections approach, the government will be hoping that the upward trajectory in oil production continues, providing fiscal space to fund its programmes and reinforcing its narrative of economic recovery.
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