Negotiating with Bandits Won't Deliver Lasting Peace— Security Analyst Warns as Violence Rages Across North-West

Reported by: Ijeoma G | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.

A prominent security analyst, Barista El Zubairu Abubakar, has issued a stark warning against the continued negotiation and amnesty programmes with armed bandits terrorising communities across northern Nigeria, declaring that such approaches have repeatedly failed to deliver lasting peace and only embolden criminal elements. In a statement that has reignited the national debate over Nigeria's counter-insurgency strategy, Abubakar argued that bandits should be arrested and, if they violently resist arrest or pose an imminent threat to lives, security forces should act decisively to neutralise them. "We have seen repeated peace deals and amnesties, yet the violence continues," he said, calling for a fundamental rethink of the government's approach to tackling armed banditry.

Abubakar's intervention comes at a time when banditry, kidnapping and mass abductions have reached alarming levels across the North-West and North-Central regions. Between January and June 2026 alone, at least 3,612 people were kidnapped across Nigeria, with the North-West accounting for 55 per cent of all reported kidnapping victims . In the first four months of 2026, more than 1,500 people were reportedly kidnapped, with another 279 taken hostage in May . Amnesty International reported that at least 1,100 people were abducted in just three months from January to April . The violence has displaced over 1.3 million people in the North-West alone , while bandits have continued to raid villages, kill residents, abduct women and children, and demand huge ransoms .

The debate over negotiation versus military action has polarised policymakers, religious leaders and security experts. In Katsina State, the government offered amnesty to so-called repentant bandits in 2025 in exchange for ending attacks on communities, yet despite the agreement, the criminals returned to violence . Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, and Niger states have at various times explored or implemented amnesty or negotiated settlements with bandit groups, often justifying the approach as a pragmatic response to overstretched security forces . However, research has shown that the post-amnesty period has witnessed an escalation in banditry, as agreements were not respected and the transnational nature of banditry undermined peace deals . A study by the Centre for Development Communication found that Nigeria's efforts to negotiate with bandit groups continue to fail in achieving lasting peace, producing only temporary ceasefires .

The failure of amnesty programmes has also drawn criticism from religious leaders. The Catholic Bishops of the Ibadan Ecclesiastical Province have condemned the reintegration of so-called repentant bandits into society, describing the practice as unjust and a disservice to victims of violent crimes . They argued that rehabilitating former bandits while victims and their families continue to suffer sends a dangerous message to society . The bishops' stance echoes the growing frustration among Nigerians who have watched bandits return to violence after being granted pardons or reintegrated into communities.

In contrast, some voices have called for continued dialogue. Kaduna-based Islamic cleric Sheikh Ahmad Gumi has urged the Federal Government to consider granting amnesty to armed bandits, arguing that years of military operations have failed to end Nigeria's worsening insecurity . Gumi has expressed hope that Nigeria would overcome its security crisis through a strategy that addresses poverty, social injustice and the deeper drivers of violence . However, his calls for amnesty have been met with resistance from state governors and military leaders who insist that negotiation only emboldens criminals.

The growing threat of bandit-insurgent collusion has further complicated the security landscape. A recent Africa Confidential report warned of collusion between bandits and insurgent groups, with attacks coordinated across multiple fronts . The fragmented bandit group landscape, with volatile leadership structures, has further complicated any negotiation attempts . Security analysts have noted that because bandits operate without central leadership, granting amnesty to some groups triggers the emergence of new groups seeking material gains .

Abubakar's call for a decisive military response aligns with the stance of several state governors who have rejected negotiations with bandits. Zamfara State Governor Dauda Lawal has reaffirmed his opposition to negotiating with bandits, insisting that seeking peace deals with criminal groups remains unacceptable and that previous attempts at negotiation had failed to produce lasting peace . Similarly, Katsina State Governor Dikko Radda, who had previously offered reintegration deals to repentant bandits , has since acknowledged that previous negotiations failed and that what is needed now is a strategy to crush them . Senator Ali Ndume has also backed the Defence Minister's no-negotiation stance, stating unequivocally: "You don't spare a bandit. You don't spare a terrorist" .

The human cost of the banditry crisis continues to mount. Just this month, bandits abducted more than 20 internally displaced persons in Sokoto State , killed nine farmers in Kaduna , and forced over 1,000 residents to flee their homes in Benue State . In Katsina, a suspected bandit attack that claimed the life of a prominent community member triggered reprisal attacks across three communities . The attacks have become so frequent that many rural communities have been deserted, with residents abandoning their farms and homes in search of safety.

The question raised by Abubakar and echoed by many Nigerians is whether the government's approach to tackling armed banditry is finally due for a fundamental rethink. With years of failed negotiations and persistent violence, the pressure is mounting on the Federal Government to adopt a more decisive and uncompromising stance against criminal groups. As one security analyst put it, allowing bandits to retain their weapons after entering into peace agreements creates conditions for future insecurity and encourages further militarisation . The time for half-measures, Abubakar suggests, may finally be over. Until the government adopts a strategy that combines military pressure with effective intelligence and community engagement, the cycle of violence, negotiation, and renewed attacks will continue to claim innocent lives.

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