Published by Osasere Edomwonyi Ikpoba
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has launched a blistering attack on a recent political projection that placed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead in 20 states for the 2027 presidential election, dismissing the forecast as “cooked-up” and lacking credible data. The reaction came through Atiku’s Media Adviser, Paul Ibe, who issued a statement via his official X handle questioning the credibility of the forecast released by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng.
The projection, which has been widely reported across Nigerian media, claimed that Tinubu would secure 20 states under current circumstances, with Atiku projected to win nine states and Peter Obi of the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) securing eight states plus the Federal Capital Territory. According to the PIG assessment, Tinubu’s greatest strength remains in the South-West, where he is expected to sweep all six states, while Kano is predicted to go to the All Progressives Congress.
In his statement, Ibe argued that the so-called forecast is not a credible substitute for a properly conducted opinion poll. He demanded that the group behind the projection make public its methodology, including the number of Nigerians surveyed, the states covered, the sample size, and the underlying data. Without answers to these basic questions, Ibe insisted that Nigerians have every right to treat the projection with profound skepticism.
Ibe further warned against what he described as an attempt to manufacture a narrative of an already-decided election, which he said could pave the way for rigging by the Tinubu-led APC government. “The only way for them to secure victory is through rigging, and that process is already underway,” Ibe had previously alleged, raising the alarm that the ruling All Progressives Congress had begun moves to rig the 2027 elections. He insisted that no polling organisation, political group, or government has the authority to predetermine the choice of the Nigerian people. “We are not doing that in the ADC that are manufacturing figures as a dress rehearsal for possible rigging in 2027, that’s why they are talking about 11 million votes; how? Those are manufactured figures but we are not doing that in the ADC,” Ibe said.
The PIG itself acknowledged that Nigeria’s political landscape remains fluid, with alliances, defections, and economic conditions capable of changing current calculations. The group stated that its projection should be understood as a political snapshot of the current situation, not a prediction of the eventual outcome in 2027. Similarly, the Renewal Group, which also projected Tinubu to win 20 states, cautioned that the forecast reflected the political circumstances prevailing at the moment and should not be regarded as a prediction of the outcome of the 2027 election. The Renewal Group noted that inflation, employment, insecurity, infrastructure, and the cost of living could significantly influence voters’ decisions, adding that new alliances, defections, coalition arrangements, and choice of running mates could also alter the political equation.
Ibe’s criticism comes amid ongoing political realignments ahead of the 2027 election, with Atiku actively engaging stakeholders of the African Democratic Congress as he pursues his presidential bid. The former Vice President has declared that he is “competing with thieves” who, according to him, “stole the election. Now they have stolen the economy. They have stolen everything”. The former vice president has also opened two fronts in his battle against President Tinubu, pursuing a court action to disqualify the President over a disputed National Youth Service Corps certificate and accusing his administration of failing to enforce the Supreme Court judgment on local government autonomy.
The debate over the 2027 election forecast underscores the growing tension as Nigeria approaches the next presidential election. While the PIG and Renewal Group projections place Tinubu in a strong position, Atiku’s camp has made it clear that it will not accept any narrative that suggests the election outcome has been predetermined. As Ibe put it, the Nigerian people, not polling organisations or political groups, will ultimately decide who becomes their next president.
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