Reported by Ariajegbe Sylvia Esezobor
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has said the country's current investment levels are insufficient to generate the jobs, improve productivity and deliver the broad-based prosperity required by its rapidly growing population, warning that recent macroeconomic reforms, while necessary, represent only the first step in a much longer journey toward economic transformation.
The private sector-led policy advocacy group stated this in a statement issued on Sunday by its Head of Strategic Communication and Advocacy, Ayanyinka Ayanlowo, ahead of the 32nd Nigerian Economic Summit, scheduled for October 26 and 27, 2026, at the Transcorp Hilton Hotel in Abuja. The summit will be held under the theme, "Growth that Works: Delivering Jobs, Productivity and Shared Prosperity," with an "Invest Nigeria" sub-theme designed to examine how the country can mobilise capital at scale to accelerate economic expansion while simultaneously investing in the human capital that powers sustainable growth. The NESG said economic transformation does not happen by chance and is built on investment in businesses, industries, infrastructure, innovation and most importantly, people. "Yet despite Nigeria's enormous potential, investment levels remain below what is required to generate the jobs, productivity gains and inclusive prosperity needed by a rapidly growing population," the statement read. The group identified infrastructure deficits, limited access to long-term finance, regulatory uncertainty and high business costs as factors that have constrained productive investment in the country for decades, adding that the challenge has become more pressing as global competition for investment capital intensifies.
At the heart of the NESG's warning is a stark demographic and employment arithmetic. In its October 2025 report titled "From Hustle to Decent Work: Unlocking Jobs and Productivity for Economic Transformation in Nigeria," the group estimated that Nigeria would need to create 27.3 million net formal jobs between 2025 and 2030, equivalent to an average of 4.55 million jobs annually, to maintain an unemployment rate of 4.3 per cent. The report identified manufacturing, including agro-processing, construction, information and communications technology, and professional services as key sectors capable of driving formal job creation, estimating that the four sectors could collectively account for 9.7 million, or 35 per cent, of new formal jobs during the period, with manufacturing alone accounting for 21 per cent. The NESG's data also shows that about 85 per cent of Nigerian workers are self-employed, compared with just 15 per cent in wage employment, a structure that leaves the majority of the labour force without the stability, benefits and productivity gains associated with formal sector work.
The group acknowledged that recent reforms aimed at stabilising the macroeconomic environment, improving fiscal sustainability and restoring investor confidence were necessary but would not be sufficient without a corresponding increase in productive investment. "While these reforms are necessary, they represent only the first step. The next challenge is translating stability into productive investment that expands businesses, creates jobs, raises incomes and improves living standards," the statement said. The NESG has consistently argued that Nigeria's economic recovery faces reversal risk without reform consolidation. In its H1 2026 Economic and Policy Review Journal, the group warned that the stabilisation gains recorded in recent months could be eroded if the country failed to move beyond macroeconomic adjustments to address the structural constraints that have kept investment and productivity low for decades.
The scale of the investment gap is underscored by the NESG's previous assessments of specific sectors. In February 2026, the group disclosed that a minimum of N2 trillion would need to be allocated in 2026 and 2027 to address structural weaknesses in the micro, small and medium enterprises sector, noting that the government's budgetary allocations, often in the range of N5 billion, were insufficient to drive meaningful reform. The group has also raised concerns over inadequate financing and weak industrial coordination as drivers of the country's poor productive capacity, and in September 2026, it called for an urgent end to the export of raw materials and the importation of finished goods, describing the structural imbalance as a suppression of value creation and employment.
The NESG's concerns are echoed in its broader research on the business environment. In its January 2026 report on private sector job creation, the group found that states relying heavily on public employment were unable to create jobs at the scale required to match Nigeria's rapidly growing labour force. Its June 2026 Business Confidence Index showed that insecurity and regulatory uncertainty continued to constrain investment, erode profit margins and limit employment growth across the economy. The August 2026 index showed that while business confidence had strengthened to a six-month high, investment remained in contraction territory, though with signs of improvement. The H1 2026 State of the Economy report found that manufacturing accounted for 76.5 per cent of total industrial employment in 2023, underscoring the sector's centrality to job creation while also highlighting the concentration of formal employment in a segment that has struggled with high energy costs, limited access to credit and infrastructure constraints.
The NESG's analysis is consistent with the findings of other economic experts. In September 2026, the World Bank's Nigeria Development Update noted that while the country's macroeconomic outlook had improved, growth remained insufficient to reduce poverty at scale, and that private sector investment was constrained by policy uncertainty, regulatory complexity and infrastructure deficits. The World Bank has repeatedly emphasised that Nigeria's GDP growth must accelerate to above four per cent annually to make a meaningful dent in unemployment and poverty, compared with the 3.5 per cent growth projected for 2026. The NESG has consistently argued that achieving that pace requires a deliberate, coordinated strategy to unlock investment in productive sectors, deepen capital markets and strengthen the policy frameworks that support long-term investment decisions.
The 32nd Nigerian Economic Summit will bring together leaders from government, business, finance, academia and development institutions to develop actionable solutions that place investment at the heart of jobs creation, productivity growth and shared prosperity. Under the "Invest Nigeria" agenda, the summit will examine opportunities for increased investment in agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, technology, energy, mining, logistics and the creative economy. Particular attention will be given to Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, which the NESG described as the backbone of the economy, with improving access to finance, reducing regulatory burdens and supporting business formalisation identified as critical pathways for accelerating investment, enterprise growth and employment generation. The summit will also explore innovative infrastructure financing models, expanding access to affordable long-term credit, strengthening public-private partnerships, promoting industrialisation and building competitive value chains for economic diversification and de-risking investments in priority sectors.
The second component of the Invest Nigeria agenda focuses on human capital development, with the NESG describing investment in people as critical to sustainable economic growth. The group noted that although Nigeria has one of the world's youngest populations, significant gaps persist in education, healthcare, workforce readiness and skills development. The summit will examine how targeted investments in education, healthcare, digital literacy, vocational training and workforce development can improve productivity and strengthen Nigeria's long-term competitiveness. A key focus will be aligning skills development with labour market demand to ensure that young Nigerians acquire the competencies required by a modern, rapidly evolving economy. At a pre-summit dialogue on "Future-proofing Nigerian Education," the NESG's Community of Practice on Youth called on government, schools, employers, technology companies and development partners to work together to fix what it described as a "broken education pipeline."
The NESG framed investment in industries and investment in people as mutually reinforcing components of economic development, explaining that stronger businesses create jobs, generate incomes and expand economic opportunities, while a healthier, better-educated and more skilled workforce drives productivity, innovation and competitiveness. "Together, these investments create a virtuous cycle that drives economic growth, strengthens resilience, and expands prosperity across society," the group said. The NESG called on government to continue strengthening the policy environment, the private sector to expand productive investment and innovation, development partners to support catalytic financing and capacity building, and educational institutions to prepare future generations for the demands of a changing economy.
The NESG's warning comes at a pivotal moment in Nigeria's economic trajectory. The Tinubu administration has implemented a series of bold reforms since 2023, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, which have stabilised public finances and restored a measure of investor confidence. However, the reforms have also imposed significant short-term hardship on households and businesses, and the government has faced mounting criticism over the cost-of-living crisis. The NESG's message is that stabilisation alone will not deliver the jobs and prosperity Nigerians expect, and that the next phase of reform must focus on unlocking the investment that translates stability into broad-based growth. For a country with one of the world's youngest populations and a labour force expanding faster than the formal economy can absorb, the stakes could hardly be higher.
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