Reported by Ariajegbe Sylvia Esezobor
Barely three months before Nigeria’s general elections, a pattern of political violence is spreading across the country, reviving tactics that contributed to the collapse of the First Republic in 1966 and the overthrow of the Second Republic in 1983.
The latest flashpoints have centred on the presidential campaign of Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress. On September 8, 2026, suspected thugs blocked Obi’s convoy on the Makurdi–Gboko federal highway as he travelled to Yelwata in Guma Local Government Area of Benue State to visit families affected by the June 2025 killings. Armed with dangerous weapons, the group prevented Obi and his entourage from reaching the community, where more than 270 people were reportedly massacred. The NDC accused the All Progressives Congress and the Benue State Government of sending hired thugs to disrupt the visit. The Benue State Government denied the allegation, describing it as “unfounded and a desperate attempt to drag Governor Hyacinth Alia” into a false narrative. Amnesty International called for an investigation. A faction of the APC in Benue State also condemned the blockade, telling Governor Alia to apologise to Obi.
Ten days later, on September 18, suspected thugs disrupted a mobilisation rally involving supporters of Obi and his running mate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, in Warri, Delta State. A photographer associated with Obi alleged that politically sponsored thugs opened fire on members of the campaign group, including the Delta State governorship candidate. A video circulated online showed a chaotic scene. The NDC said its supporters repelled the attack.
These incidents are not isolated. On August 30, 2025, thugs armed with cutlasses, clubs and stones stormed the inauguration of a transition committee set up by opposition parties in Kaduna State, attacking participants and vandalising property. On September 7, 2025, miscreants invaded an ADC rally in Alimosho, Lagos, organised to welcome Obi. Participants were injured. On February 1, 2026, a political defection ceremony in Alimosho was cut short after suspected thugs invaded the venue.
The Department of State Services has warned of a broader threat. On September 9, 2026, the DSS alerted Muslim and Christian leaders in Osun State to an alleged plan by terrorists to attack churches, mosques, markets and other public gathering centres in an attempt to frustrate the 2027 elections. The intelligence indicated that terrorists were planning to spread insecurity to Southern Nigeria, particularly the South-West, to create tension ahead of the presidential election. The Osun State Muslim Community President confirmed the meeting, describing the alert as genuine. The state’s CAN chairman said Christian leaders were instructed to strengthen security awareness.
Nigeria’s political history provides a sobering template. The First Republic was characterised by violent struggles for power, most infamously in the Western Region, where “Operation Wetie” — the practice of pouring petrol on opponents and setting them on fire — became a byword for political brutality. The crisis contributed to the military takeover of January 1966. The Second Republic also witnessed political tension and violence, particularly around the 1983 elections, which were marked by massive rigging and violence in states such as Oyo, Ondo and Niger, where Federal Electoral Commission officials were burnt to death. The Republic was truncated by a military coup in December 1983.
What worries observers today is not only the recurrence of old tactics but their migration into new terrain. In Gombe State, the police have launched a campaign against what they call “political and digital thuggery,” warning that a smartphone can now carry a rumour farther and faster than a campaign vehicle. “One click can now cause more damage than a bullet and one false post can set a whole community on fire,” the state’s Commissioner of Police said. The notorious Kalare gangs, once associated with physical violence, are increasingly active online, spreading misinformation and hate speech capable of triggering real-world conflict.
The National Peace Committee, chaired by former military Head of State Abdulsalami Abubakar, organised an accord-signing ceremony for presidential candidates and party chairpersons on August 18, 2026. President Bola Tinubu, represented by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, said the initiative provided an opportunity for candidates to affirm their commitment to peaceful elections. But barely 20 days into the campaign period, the attacks began. The NDC has accused the APC and the Benue State Government of hiring thugs, allegations the APC denies. The Benue State Government said the NDC had not notified security agencies ahead of Obi’s visit, though documents later showed the party had notified the police.
The Independent National Electoral Commission has warned that worsening insecurity could threaten the credibility of the polls. INEC Chairman Joash Amupitan has said persistent violence and threats to electoral processes pose a significant risk to democratic stability. The Nigeria Police Force says it has activated precision intelligence mapping to neutralise political violence and intimidation.
The question now is whether Nigeria can break the cycle that destroyed its first two republics. The National Peace Accord was signed. The police have pledged robust security. The DSS has issued warnings. But the thugs are already on the streets, and the memories of 1966 and 1983 are growing harder to ignore.
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