Tinubu's Reforms Yet to Lift Nigeria Out of Lower-Middle Income Status— World Bank

Published on 10 July 2026 at 12:41

Reported by: Oahimire Omone Precious | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.

The World Bank has retained Nigeria's classification as a lower-middle-income economy for the 2027 fiscal year, keeping Africa's most populous nation in the same income bracket it has occupied since 2010 despite sweeping economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu's administration over the past two years. The Washington-based lender, in its latest income classification update, placed Nigeria among economies with a gross national income (GNI) per capita of between $1,176 and $4,635, while low-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $1,175 or less.

The classification is based on countries' 2025 GNI per capita calculated using the World Bank's Atlas method, which applies a three-year average of exchange rates to reduce the impact of currency fluctuations and improve cross-country comparisons. The annual income classifications are widely used by development institutions, investors, and policymakers to assess countries' levels of economic development, determine eligibility for concessional financing, and compare income levels across economies . The updated thresholds apply to the 2027 fiscal year, which runs from July 2026 to June 2027.

Nigeria also retained its status as a "blend country," making it eligible to access financing from both the International Development Association (IDA), which provides concessional loans and grants to poorer countries, and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), which lends to middle-income economies . The country has remained in the lower-middle-income category since moving up from low-income status in 2010, meaning successive governments have sought to raise Nigeria into the upper-middle-income bracket by expanding non-oil exports, improving productivity, and strengthening macroeconomic stability. 

President Tinubu's administration has implemented sweeping economic reforms over the past two years, including the removal of petrol subsidies, liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, and fiscal measures intended to improve public finances and attract investment . However, these reforms have also contributed to higher inflation and increased cost-of-living pressures . The government's reform agenda has been aimed at strengthening macroeconomic stability and laying the foundation for faster long-term growth, but the latest classification suggests those efforts have yet to translate into a higher income category. 

Across Africa, the latest World Bank update reflected mixed changes in countries' income classifications. Cabo Verde advanced from lower-middle-income to upper-middle-income status, while Togo moved from the low-income group to the lower-middle-income category . Ghana, Kenya, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, Cameroon, Angola, and Zambia remained in the lower-middle-income category alongside Nigeria . Namibia, however, moved in the opposite direction after being reclassified from an upper-middle-income economy to the lower-middle-income group . South Africa, Botswana, Mauritius, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and Cabo Verde are now classified as Africa's upper-middle-income economies, while Seychelles remains the continent's only high-income economy. 

The World Bank noted that the income classification is updated annually and serves as an important tool for operational and analytical purposes, adding that it is not a direct measure of a country's overall economic performance or level of development but provides an indication of average national income relative to other economies . Nigeria's continued placement in the lower-middle income category reflects its current income level and serves as a benchmark for international comparisons, development financing, and economic analysis . As the Tinubu administration continues its reform agenda, the retention of Nigeria's lower-middle-income status underscores the significant gap between policy ambition and the tangible income gains needed to move the country into a higher income bracket, a challenge that will require sustained efforts to boost productivity, expand non-oil exports, and build a more resilient economy.

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