Reported by: Ijeoma G | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.
New data released by the World Bank has confirmed that Nigeria remains the third‑largest borrower from its concessional lending arm, the International Development Association (IDA), with a total exposure of $18.5 billion as of March 31, 2026. Although the country recorded a modest quarter‑on‑quarter decline of $200 million (1.1%) from the $18.7 billion owed at the end of December 2025, its year‑on‑year debt burden increased by $1.2 billion (6.9%), up from $17.3 billion in March 2025. This persistent upward trajectory underscores Nigeria’s deepening reliance on cheap, long‑term financing to fund infrastructure, social investment and macroeconomic reforms, even as the nation’s overall public debt stock continues to climb.
According to the IDA’s latest financial report for the quarter ended March 2026, Bangladesh remains the institution’s largest borrower with $22.7 billion, followed by Pakistan at $19.2 billion. Nigeria’s $18.5 billion exposure places it well ahead of other major African borrowers such as Ethiopia ($14.4 billion), Tanzania ($14.3 billion) and Kenya ($13.2 billion). The IDA’s total outstanding loan portfolio stood at $230.8 billion, slightly down from $231.1 billion at the end of 2025, signalling a minor moderation in overall lending. However, the concentration of debt remains pronounced: the ten largest borrowing countries account for 60% of the IDA’s portfolio, with Nigeria alone representing roughly 8% of total IDA exposure and 13.3% of the exposure among the top ten borrowers.
The data also shows that IDA loans in non‑accrual status make up only 0.4% of the portfolio, while accumulated provisions for potential loan losses amount to $6.3 billion, representing a 2.0% provisioning rate – broadly unchanged from the previous year. The World Bank has described Nigeria as a “blend” country, meaning it is eligible for IDA concessional resources while also being creditworthy for some borrowing from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). This dual status has allowed Nigeria to access a growing volume of low‑interest financing, but it has also contributed to a steady build‑up of external obligations at a time when domestic debt is ballooning.
Indeed, the Debt Management Office (DMO) announced on April 15, 2026, that Nigeria’s total public debt (federal and state governments combined) had risen to N159.27 trillion by the end of the fourth quarter of 2025 – an increase of N5.98 trillion from the N153.29 trillion recorded at the end of the third quarter. This figure underscores the dual‑pronged pressure on Nigeria’s public finances: while World Bank debt has increased year‑on‑year, domestic borrowing has soared even faster, driven by rising fiscal deficits, debt service costs and the need to plug budget gaps.
Despite the marginal quarterly decline, the Federal Government continues to pursue new external financing. In May 2026, the government engaged the World Bank for a fresh $1.25 billion loan under a proposed programme aimed at expanding access to finance, strengthening digital services, improving electricity supply and supporting reforms in tax administration, agriculture and trade. If approved, this new facility would bring total World Bank loan approvals secured under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration (since June 2023) to approximately $10.6 billion. The Accountant‑General of the Federation, Dr. Shamseldeen Babatunde Ogunjimi, has urged the World Bank to speed up loan approval and fund disbursement processes, stressing that Nigeria depends on timely access to these facilities to execute critical development projects.
Nevertheless, the persistent rise in Nigeria’s World Bank obligations has drawn sharp reactions from analysts and civil society. While IDA loans are concessional – offering low interest rates and long grace periods – the sheer volume of borrowing continues to add to the country’s debt service burden. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, Nigeria spent a significant portion of its revenue on servicing both domestic and external debt, leaving limited fiscal space for health, education and infrastructure. Some economists have warned that the country’s rising debt profile could place long‑term pressure on the economy and future generations, especially if borrowed funds are not deployed into high‑impact, revenue‑generating projects.
Others argue that concessional borrowing remains a rational strategy, provided it is tied to reforms that boost productivity and exports. The Tinubu administration has framed the loans as essential to stabilising the economy after the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of the exchange rate. The World Bank has been a key partner in those reforms, providing policy‑based lending to support fiscal consolidation and social protection programmes. However, critics contend that the government has yet to articulate a clear exit strategy from the cycle of repeated borrowing, and that without stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, Nigeria’s status as a top IDA borrower may become a permanent feature, not a temporary necessity.
For now, the IDA’s March 2026 report confirms that Nigeria’s debt to the World Bank has declined slightly in absolute terms over the past three months, but the overall trend remains firmly upward. With a fresh $1.25 billion loan under negotiation and total public debt already exceeding N159 trillion, the country’s reliance on external financing shows no sign of abating. The immediate challenge for the government is to ensure that every dollar borrowed translates into tangible improvements in infrastructure, productivity and living standards – turning today’s debt into tomorrow’s growth.
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