Reported by: Oahimire Omone Precious | Edited by: Oravbiere Osayomore Promise.
A former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), Dr Okechukwu Unegbu, has launched a blistering attack on the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), rejecting the agency's latest inflation figures and insisting that Nigeria's true headline inflation rate is between 35 and 40 per cent – more than double the official estimate. Unegbu's intervention, which came on the heels of the NBS's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July 2026 showing headline inflation at 14.43 per cent, has reignited a fierce debate about the credibility of official economic data and the widening chasm between government statistics and the lived reality of ordinary Nigerians.
The NBS had reported on Monday, August 17, 2026, that Nigeria's headline inflation rate dropped to 14.43 per cent in July, down from 15.91 per cent in June. But Unegbu, speaking to DAILY POST on Tuesday, August 18, dismissed the figures as fundamentally disconnected from the realities of the Nigerian market. "For me, the inflation that is dropping is neither here nor there. It doesn't make sense to me because, for me, it is still construed," he said. "So, my figure is far more, up to 35-40 per cent".
The former CIBN president argued that the NBS's methodology fails to capture the true cost of living because it does not adequately reflect the prices Nigerians actually pay for essential goods and services. "Inflation is based on looking at the public spread – how people are living. What is the standard of living like? Okay, were you able to buy your fuel, let's say, N600 per litre? And for me, it is not improving," Unegbu said. He pointed to everyday market realities as a more reliable indicator than the official basket. "If inflation drops in society, it will reflect on the general public. You go to the market; you should be able to buy one orange for N5, not buy one orange for N15. So, these are the issues".
Unegbu's criticism is not an isolated outburst. He revealed that his organisation maintains its own independent records, which consistently show elevated price growth. "We keep our own record, and our own record says inflation is still high in Nigeria," he said. The divergence between official statistics and public perception has become a recurring theme in Nigeria's economic discourse, with analysts noting that the CPI basket weights and data collection methods may not fully reflect rapid price shifts in informal markets, where most households shop. Transportation costs, energy prices, and food inflation – driven by supply chain disruptions and currency volatility – often outpace the broader index.
The Guardian's analysis of the July CPI data revealed a troubling picture beneath the headline figure: while headline inflation fell to 15.43 per cent, food inflation – the most impactful category on ordinary citizens – rose sharply from 17.52 per cent to 20.31 per cent, the highest since August 2025. The month-on-month change in food inflation stood at 5.56 per cent, the highest post-CPI rebasing figure the economy has posted, growing consistently for three consecutive months. This means that even as the headline figure declines, the cost of putting food on the table is actually accelerating – a reality that Unegbu's 35-40 per cent estimate captures far more accurately than the NBS's 14.43 per cent.
The NBS has consistently defended its methodology as aligned with international standards, but critics argue that the gap between official figures and public experience erodes trust in economic policymaking. For households, the disparity means wage negotiations, social interventions, and business planning may be calibrated to figures that do not match their reality. Unegbu's intervention adds weight to calls for a review of how inflation is measured and communicated.
Unegbu's estimate of 35-40 per cent is not a new position. In November 2025, he had similarly criticised the NBS figures as "flawed," insisting that the true inflation rate was significantly higher than official suggestions, driven by persistent increases in food, rent, transportation, and fuel costs. His consistency on this issue underscores a growing frustration among economic experts who believe that the NBS's methodology has failed to keep pace with the structural changes in Nigeria's economy.
As the Monetary Policy Committee prepares for its September meeting, the debate over the true inflation rate carries significant implications for monetary policy. The CBN has kept the Monetary Policy Rate between 26.5 and 27.5 per cent in the past year, but if Unegbu's estimate is correct, the policy response may be entirely inadequate to address the scale of the price pressures facing Nigerian households. For now, the former CIBN president has made his position unmistakably clear: the official inflation figures are a fiction, and the real cost of living in Nigeria is far higher than the government is willing to admit. Until the data reflects what Nigerians encounter daily, the debate over the true cost of living is unlikely to subside.
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